[This story was revised on July 17 to correct a statistical error]
Bombardier’s just-released market forecast shows an 8 percent drop in anticipated deliveries of business aircraft during the coming 20 years compared to last year’s forecast. However, it sees an increase of around 2 percent in the commercial aircraft sector. The current forecast is for deliveries from 2014 to 2033.
Last year, Bombardier forecast deliveries of 24,000 business jets worth $650 billion from 2013 to 2032. The current forecast is for 22,000 business jets worth $617 billion. These numbers are for aircraft segments in which it Bombardier competes with its Learjet, Challenger and Global models.
According to Bombardier, “Business aircraft orders are expected to remain challenging in 2014 across the industry, but projected to improve beginning in 2015.” The company sees demand shifting to emerging markets and thus driving growth of the medium and large jet categories with the most rapid growth in the large segment. The largest number of jets during the forecast period will be delivered to North American customers, followed by Europe then China. The forecast sees 950 deliveries in China from 2014 to 2023 and 1,275 from 2024 to 2033.
In the commercial market for 20- to 149-seat jets, Bombardier now forecasts demand for 16,700 units worth $658 billion 13,100 deliveries worth $658 billion. This is up on last year’s forecast of 13,100 units worth $646 billion. The current forecast breaks the commercial market into 400 aircraft from with 20 to 59 seats; 5,600 from with 60 to 99 seats; and 7,100 from with 100 to 149 seats.
The North American market is expected to account for deliveries of 3,650 aircraft during the forecast period, followed by Greater China with 2,280, Europe 1,840, Asia Pacific 1,400, Latin America 1,100, CIS 830, India 760, Africa 700 and the Middle East 540.