Fuel Crisis Raises the Stakes in Chase for Alternatives

The chronic shortage of jet fuel caused by the ongoing wartime closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the air transport sector’s vulnerability to geopolitics. At the same time, the industry is supposed to be focused on meeting its Net Zero decarbonization commitments—a confluence that raises questions around how to reconcile short-term imperatives with longer-term objectives.

Some companies developing new approaches to fuel supply and aircraft propulsion see the current crisis as a potential tipping point that could provide fresh impetus for their work. At the same time, they acknowledge that the urgent need to secure fossil fuels immediately could cause a loss of focus on the long-term ambition for alternative fuels.

UK start-up OXCCU is developing a process for converting biogenic waste carbon and hydrogen into sustainable aviation fuel. At its headquarters near Oxford, it is preparing to start operating a second test plant in early 2027 to demonstrate the capability to produce a few tons of fuel each year to de-risk technology that could be scaled up for licensed production.

OXCCU’s CEO and co-founder, Andrew Symes, sees SAF as the long-term solution to air transport’s energy needs, but he also recognizes the imperative to secure affordable fossil jet fuel for the transition. In his view, air transport stakeholders need to step up efforts to shore up access to fossil-based jet-A and, at the same time, support longer-term availability of sustainable alternatives.

“In the short term, this is a real crisis, which SAF can’t solve it immediately because the volumes are still too low. It will get there, but not in months,” Symes told AIN. “Increasingly, as with the energy transition more generally, the industry needs to focus on a managed transition where it treats both fossil fuel and SAF as equally important and does not demand an immediate choice between them.”

That said, Symes is clear that the industry can ill afford to downplay the lessons learned from the standoff between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. “At some point, you have to see that fossil jet fuel is not a stable, reliable, secure fuel; we are seeing constant crises, and we have to be ready for continuing volatility by developing the new sources of SAF. And as SAF technologies are going to be the future, they will be in demand globally, creating a real export opportunity for the countries that develop them first, something not possible with fossil jet fuel,” he commented.

Asia Shows the Way

According to Symes, evidence of the balanced approach can be found in Asia, arguably more so than in Europe or the U.S. At the same time, as governments and industry in that part of the world are scrambling to secure alternative sources of jet-A, there has been rapid growth in the availability of feedstocks and the plants needed for SAF production, including UCO via HEFA, biogas via gas-to-liquid, waste biomass via gasification, and green hydrogen and CO2 via power-to-liquid.

Despite some recent shifts in thinking in Europe, there has yet to be a significant expansion in SAF production plants. Symes believes that the heightened energy security risks posed by the Iran war—that arguably should have been learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—are now resulting in a more productive focus on efforts to establish dispersed localized production capability that might support, for instance, air force fuel requirements.

“There is a way for us to make more modular plants that can supply critical infrastructure, and these get around the challenges of building larger plants,” Symes explained. OXCCU is now focused on producing containerized units with all the equipment included for smaller airports and military bases as a stepping stone to wider, larger-scale adoption of its technology.

The company hopes to be ready to announce early use cases in late 2026 or early next year. Each micro plant could be producing around 1,000 tons of SAF annually by 2028.

The OXCCU catalyst and reactor technology, which it aims to license to fuel refiners and biofuel companies, converts blends of carbon dioxide and/or carbon monoxide (and hydrogen sourced from waste biomass and carbon) into SAF. According to the company, it is well-suited for military applications as it is capable of making all of the components of jet A-1. Military use cases, for which security is the primary consideration, can opt to be somewhat less selective in terms of the environmental credentials of the food stock used.

Hydrogen Alternatives

In the Netherlands, Conscious Aerospace is conducting preliminary designs for a two-megawatt hydrogen-propulsion system it says could decarbonize existing aircraft such as the Dash 8. While working with airlines including KLM and Transavia, the company and its partner de Havilland Canada are also addressing possible opportunities such as re-engining military aircraft like those used by Dutch forces.

Conscious founder Michel van Ierland said that the blockade of fuel supplies from Gulf states has raised awareness of how complex energy dependency can become. He feels that the impact of the crisis could continue for months and maybe years before jet fuel supplies stabilize, worsening already constrained jet-A supplies at some airports, and causing more flight cancellations and price rises.

“This is causing a lot of fear because it is a crisis the industry cannot control, as so much jet fuel comes through the Strait of Hormuz, and restoring supplies there will take a long time,” he said.

According to van Ierland, smaller regional operators are most exposed to the rising cost of jet fuel, and so potentially receptive to longer-term alternatives like hydrogen. His company’s work with KLM and Transavia is tracking potential use cases for the technology on routes of up to 750 km (405 nm), which is the maximum range its propulsion system is expected to support initially. “More than three million passengers are currently flying out of [Amsterdam] Schiphol [Airport] each year over those regional distances,” he pointed out.

“Hydrogen could decrease the vulnerability of the fuel supply chain even if the capacity won’t be at a high rate to start,” van Ierland said. “We are now on the right path with new energy sources that can reduce carbon dioxide while also reducing vulnerability [for the air transport sector].”

On May 28, KLM and its partner SkyNRG broke ground to build the first facility in the Netherlands fully dedicated to SAF production. The plant is expected to be operational in 2028 and should be able to produce around 100,000 metric tons of fuel each year from cooking oil and residual fats.

For the military applications being explored, Conscious says hydrogen propulsion has the added benefit of reducing the detectability of aircraft. This is due to the reduced heat profile from the fuel.

Conscious is aiming to start ground testing its technology at the end of 2027. It believes it can be ready to flight test a converted Dash 8 twin turboprop in 2029 and achieve entry into service with initial customers in 2030.