Airbus Closes In on Options for Next-Generation Airliners

In 2004, Airbus launched what would become the first version of the A350—its last all-new airplane design. Two decades on, the European airframer’s plans to refresh its product line remain unclear, albeit plenty of options appear to be on the table.

The A350 was an extreme makeover of the A330. Rolls-Royce Trent engines developed for the Boeing 787 were chosen for the new A350. A new composite wing replaced the A330’s metal wing. A few dozen A350s were sold, but it wasn’t long before Airbus realized this was going to be a loser.

After more false starts, Airbus launched the revamped A350 in 2006, called the XWB, for Xtra Wide Body. Since the A350 was Airbus’ response to the 787, the final version was slightly wider but still narrower than the 777 fuselage. Airbus tried to straddle the 777 and 787 lines with a compromise design.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury previously said he expected to launch a new airplane program in 2030. This would follow about two years of testing CFM’s RISE open-fan engine, designed for the single-aisle replacements of the A320 and Boeing’s 737.

Engine testing was to begin in 2027. It now isn’t slated to begin until 2029. This means that a program launch is unlikely before 2031.

In recent years, Airbus floated the concept of a stretched A220, commonly referred to as the A220-500. Internally, Airbus calls the concept the A220S for Stretch.

Reinventing Narrowbodies

The big decision to come is when to replace the A320neo family—and with what engine. Christian Scherer, a lifer at Airbus who served as chief strategist, chief salesman, and, most recently, CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, has been a strong proponent of the RISE open-fan engine. He was also the leading proponent of the A220S.

Scherer retired on December 31. His successor, Lars Wagner, appears to favor proceeding with the A220S. Wagner joined Airbus from his position as CEO of MTU Aero Engines. MTU is a big contractor to CFM’s rival Pratt & Whitney on the Geared Turbofan.

When Airbus was about a third of the way into the development of the A350-900, it decided in late 2010 to upgrade its A319/A320/A321 lineup with new engines, in which a doubled bypass ratio saved an average of 15% in fuel.

At the June 2011 Paris Air Show, Airbus recorded more than 1,000 orders for the A320neo/A321neo. Airbus had played a high-stakes game of chicken with Boeing to win a huge order from American Airlines for 260 A320s one month later, half of which were neos. When Boeing learned of the looming Airbus deal, the U.S. company’s then-CEO Jim McNerney decided to halt development of a 737 replacement and launch the re-engined backup design. This became the 737 Max.

Airbus prepares various technology development programs—which it calls “Technobricks”—to be ready for upgrades of existing aircraft or the development of a new aircraft program like its Next Generation Single Aisle (NGSA) aircraft. These include the following: CFM’s open-fan engine concept and other propulsion alternatives; the development of lower-cost and higher-rate composite structures; the Wing of Tomorrow program; the Multi-Functional Fuselage Demonstrator; and the biomimicry-based “Flapping” Wing (AlbatrossONE & eXtra Performance Wing) initiatives.

Green Aviation Goals

When Airbus received French government money as part of efforts to shore up the aerospace sector in the wake of the Covid pandemic, it was on the understanding that it would contribute to decarbonization efforts. Airbus pledged to intensify its research into hydrogen as an alternative fuel to jet-A.

The company set 2035 as its initial target to design, launch, and put into service a hydrogen-powered airliner, but in 2025 said the timeline had slipped to at least 2040. The company showed three concepts: a propeller aircraft, a tube-and-wing mainline jet, and a blended-wing-body design.

At the same time, ATR, of which Airbus owns 50%, committed in February to deciding by the end of 2029 whether to launch its hybrid-electric Evo turboprop, which it would bring into service in the mid-2030s. The question is: how does all this fit into the work on the Airbus Next New Airplane?

Airbus has long been active in the green aviation space. Europe has been more aggressive about green aviation than the U.S., so pressure on Airbus plays a role. With a large customer base in Europe, Boeing must engage in green aviation research as well. But there are fundamental differences between Airbus’ and Boeing’s approaches.

Airbus’ research has been more broadly based and more aggressive in alternative fuels than Boeing’s. Airbus believes in hydrogen, while recognizing the challenges of production and infrastructure. Both companies invest time and money in the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) arena.

But Boeing’s research in hydrogen is limited. Its R&D into batteries and hybrids is focused on how these may be applied to systems rather than alternative power for airplanes. Boeing believes that SAF is the only feasible solution in the near-to-medium term. It’s not wrong, and years ago announced a commitment that its aircraft would be 100% SAF-capable by 2030. Airbus soon followed, as the near-term feasibility of its hydrogen-based ZEROe project waned.

Airbus Bets on a Fuel Cell-based ZEROe

Airbus conducted broad studies on alternative propulsion systems after the 2014 flight of its Airbus E-Fan technology demonstrator. It was quickly realized that battery-powered aircraft would not have the required range and that hybrid aircraft faced challenges in achieving operational and production cost advantages over classical gas turbine propeller aircraft.

By 2019, it focused on hydrogen as a viable alternative to jet-A1-fueled turbofan aircraft. The ZEROe concepts presented in 2020 were all hydrogen-based, with a turboprop concept using fuel cells to generate electric power and the jet alternatives using hydrogen-fueled turbofans.

As the project matured, it was more and more clear that a hydrogen-fueled aircraft would have a limited operational base for quite a long introduction period, as the aircraft requires a liquid hydrogen production facility at airports. It became clear how challenging it is to get airports to invest in such a facility for initial hydrogen-based airliner projects.

As the ZEROe project morphed into a ground-breaking sustainable aviation project, it became fitting that the airplane produced would be a true zero-emission aircraft. This made the gas turbine-based concepts burning hydrogen less attractive, as they still emit nitrogen oxide emissions, though at a reduced level.

The decisions regarding a fuel cell-based airplane limit the size to what is practical for an electric-motor-propelled aircraft in the coming decades. Airbus has presented a refined concept for the four-engine, 100-seat turboprop aircraft it is working on for the ZEROe introduction after 2040.

Years ago, Airbus confirmed that it retains its ownership in ATR as a proving ground for new technology. Otherwise, there is no apparent reason for Airbus to own 50% of this manufacturer, with Italy’s Leonardo owning the other 50%. The regional turboprop market is minuscule, and Airbus for years has blocked development of a successor to the ATR 42/72.

That design dates to the 1980s. It’s been updated continuously, and it is now the sole OEM in the Western world in its space following the withdrawal of the former Bombardier Q400 from new production. Former Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier put it succinctly when Bombardier was still in business: why design a new airplane when ATR already had 85% of the market?

According to Kiran Rao, who was Airbus’ strategy chief for many years and its representative on the ATR board of directors, the capital cost to airlines of an entirely new airplane couldn’t be justified with the low cost of the amortized ATRs. The limited utilization couldn’t recoup the return on investment for a new $20 million airliner.

Airbus consistently blocked Leonardo’s desire to design a new airplane for these business case reasons. Embraer similarly studied and abandoned re-entering the turboprop sector due to the lack of a new engine that could offer a step-change reduction in fuel costs.

EVOlution Beckons

However, with advances in new technologies that could marry electric power with turboprops, ATR is moving forward—so far—with its Evo project, which is still based on the ATR 42/72 series. It’s looking into improved aerodynamics coupled to further developed propulsion technology involving different levels of hybridization. ATR has given itself the rest of the 2020s to determine whether its proposed Evo hybrid-electric regional airliner is feasible.

At the European airframer’s annual results press conference on February 18, CEO Nathalie Tarnaud Laude told reporters that the learnings from the research and technology work it is doing as part of EU-backed Clean Aviation projects will support the decision-making process for its Evo feasibility study.

Since September 2025, ATR has taken the lead in a pair of EU Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking programs intended to support service entry for a next-generation regional airliner in 2035 that will deliver at least a 30% reduction in carbon-dioxide emissions. Along with two other programs that are part of the Ultra-Efficient Regional Aircraft initiative, the work is backed by €140 million ($165 million) in Clean Aviation funding and more than €200 million from industry partners

The Hybrid-Electric Regional Aircraft Concept for Low Emissions (HERACLES) project is focused on the development of propulsion technology, high-performance batteries, an improved thermal engine that can run on 100% sustainable aviation fuel, advanced propellers, optimized aerodynamics, and a more-electric architecture. Aerospace groups, including Airbus, Leonardo, Safran, Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace, Ratier-Figeac, and CIRA, are contributing to this work.

The Demonstrator of an Electrified Modern Efficient Transport Regional Aircraft (DEMETRA) project will use an ATR aircraft as a flying testbed to validate the integration of hybrid-electric propulsion, electrical and thermal system performance, high-energy-density batteries, ground and flight testing procedures, and the certification process. The partners supporting work toward test flights in 2029 include Airbus, Collins Aerospace UK, DNW, Leonardo, Liebherr Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Ratier-Figeac, Safran Electrical & Power, Saft, and Thales Avionics.

“Clean Aviation offers us the perfect platform to work hand-in-hand with strategic partners on maturing the technologies that will be essential for our future Evo concept,” Tarnaud Laude said. “These projects are already informing the Evo feasibility study, and they play a critical role in ensuring that our next-generation aircraft continues to deliver the right combination of sustainability, economics, and versatility that regional operators expect from ATR.”

Incremental Improvement

The ZEROe and Evo projects are on a different scale. In ZEROe, Airbus is developing a 100% new propulsion system and an aircraft adapted for this four-engine system. The ATR Evo program is an incremental further improvement of the trusted ATR 72 platform, improving its efficiency and emissions in the single-digit to low two-digit percent range.

The Airbus ZEROe is a project that targets a 100% reduction in environmentally damaging emissions. The two projects, therefore, have very different goals, budgets, and targets.

When Boeing entered crisis mode with the March 13, 2019, grounding of the 737 Max, the company jumped from one crisis to another. The Covid pandemic in March 2020 dried up demand for widebody airplanes, grinding 787 deliveries to a virtual halt. Then, all deliveries were suspended for 20 months from October 2020, when a production flaw was discovered.

Just when things appeared to be looking up at long last, the door plug blew off a 10-week-old 737-9 Max. The cause was traced to sloppy assembly at Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems. Boeing slid into another crisis.

At long last, things began to look up for Boeing in 2025 and continue their ascent this year.

Its archrival, Airbus, didn’t have a crisis to deal with—just a balky supply chain that has disrupted plans to ramp up production of the A220, A320neo, A330neo, and A350 lines. In other words, every commercial line.

Supply-chain problems, mostly with engines and interiors but also with others, make it difficult for Airbus to meet its delivery goals.

At face value, Airbus is in far better shape than Boeing. Nevertheless, there are some challenges that may not be immediately apparent.

The European aerospace giant ended 2025 in good shape financially and with strong commitments to R&D spending. At the same time, it faces higher manufacturing costs and a still-unresolved product gap in the middle of the air transport market.

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