Global Pax Traffic Extends Gains while Freight Volumes Slump

Air transport has managed to avoid severe repercussions from geopolitical risks such as the Greek debt crisis and ongoing events in Ukraine, the Middle East and West Africa during the first half of this year, registering traffic growth of 5.7 percent at the world’s major airports, according to a report released Monday by Airports Council International (ACI). However, ACI called a 3.4-percent growth rate in air freight markets “subdued,” as global demand for foreign goods and commodities weakened since last year and business confidence entered a state of “limbo” for the first half of 2015, a circumstance reflected in a weakening of orders by air and accumulating inventories.

“While the prospect of future global economic growth is cause for optimism, there are two forces at play which are pushing the pendulum in opposite directions,” noted ACI. “As key regional economies such as North America get back on course, a cyclical slowdown in emerging markets is dampening the potential for significant advances in the global air freight market. Thus, future growth prospects in the latter half of 2015 will remain limited.”

In the passenger segment, every region of the globe examined by the ACI report showed at least modest improvements in traffic during the first half of 2015. Middle Eastern airports continue to achieve the highest growth rate among all regions, registering an 8.8-percent increase in the first half, following closely by the Asia-Pacific market, which saw a growth rate of 8.3 percent. In the Middle East, double-digit growth rates in Doha (14.4 percent), Abu Dhabi (17.3 percent) and Dubai (10.4 percent) have become the norm, said the report, while in Asia, gaudy traffic figures in places such as Shanghai, which registered an 18 percent growth rate, continued to support projections for that region’s eventual preeminence.

In fully mature aviation markets such as North America, more moderate growth prevailed during the first half. Still, the ongoing resurgence of the U.S. economy pushed total growth rates to 4.2 percent, and traffic at that country’s second-largest airport—Chicago O’Hare—to a 10-percent increase over the same period a year earlier. Even in Europe, where uncertainties surrounding Greece and the prospect of its exit from the Eurozone sent tremors throughout the world’s financial markets, passenger traffic rose 4.6 percent over the volumes posted during the first half of last year. In fact, a revival from the early days of the Eurozone crisis at most of the region’s airports in 2014 continued in the first half of 2015, when, for example, Madrid recorded an 11.4-percent increase in passenger traffic.

In air freight markets, results proved more mixed during the first half of this year, as weakening cross-border trade activity “enfeebled” the Asia-Pacific market, where international freight volumes grew by only 2.7 percent. In Europe, uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt crisis and its potential contagion effects resulted in an even more sluggish 0.5 percent growth rate. In fact, the continent’s three major freight hubs—Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam—experienced declines of 2.3 percent, 4.7 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in the first half of 2015.

Conversely, the Middle East continued to capitalize on its strategic hub locations for both long- and short-haul traffic, generating an 8.7-percent increase in freight volumes from January to June 2015. Dubai International (DXB), the region’s largest freight hub, grew by 2.8 percent over the period, while Doha and the new Dubai World Central (DWC), the region’s second- and third-ranked airports, witnessed 11.4 percent and 57.6 percent growth rates.  

Meanwhile, the U.S. economic rebound continued to propel North American freight volumes. A 4.8-percent growth rate constitutes the potential makings of a “banner year” for such a mature market, according to ACI. Chicago O’Hare saw particularly robust growth, registering a 20.5-percent gain in the first half of the year thanks largely to investment in the airport’s new Northeast Cargo Center.