Dubai Airshow Remains World's Number Three Aviation Event

The Dubai Airshow sets out today to give the regional aviation industry a fresh sense of energy, as uncertainty over regional security, flat load factors, and a dormant order book blights optimism. With Emirates Airline likely to stand pat and Etihad of late paring its fleet, the only hope for major commercial aircraft orders this year appears to be Air Arabia deciding to pull the trigger on 100 new narrowbodies, if CEO Adel Ali deems the timing right.

As the taciturn president of Emirates Tim Clark launches perhaps his sternest defense of the airline's A380 strategy to date—and takes personal credit for the plan since inception—it is clear that the recent retirement of two of the aircraft for spares does not indicate the death-knell of the airline's 500-plus-seater model, as some analysts have suggested. Whether the passenger volumes streaming through hub Dubai, which faltered in the past 12 months, will lead to ultimate justification for the doyen of Middle East aviation executives remains to be seen.

In an interview with Airline Ratings on November 14, Clark excoriated other flag carriers, particularly Air France and British Airways, over their failure to capitalize on the opportunity the superjumbo offered, especially out of a hub as big as London Heathrow. "Maybe it needed someone like me to persuade our shareholder to buy 150 of them," he said. "Most carriers were buying three, four, or ten if they were lucky. We will still have 90, maybe a hundred A380s flying by the end of the next decade and will be flying the A380 until the early 2030s."

Emirates's noisy rival across the Gulf, Qatar Airways, last week announcing a $4 billion CFM engine order for its 50 Airbus A321neos and recently signed for another 10 Gulfstream business jets, this time the all-new G700 ultra-long-range jet, bringing the total commitment of charter arm Qatar Executive to the U.S. aircraft manufacturer to 58 aircraft.

Elsewhere, the unseemly haste with which Saudi Aramco has launched its initial public offering, after years of prevarication, only serves to underscore the growing threat to the region's dependence on hydrocarbon income, as the global quest for, and debate on, clean energy and renewables quickens.

One bright spot for Dubai has been business aviation, with total flights through the city's two airports jumping 26 percent to 7,950 movements in the first half of the year, 72 percent of them though Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC)—a new high—where the Dubai Airshow is being held. The outlook will only improve with the commencement next October of World Expo 2020, likely to be a tourism jamboree for the emirate's flagging economy.  

Although official estimates of overseas arrivals for the six-month event have been cut back to 11 million, the Expo is expected to give the UAE economy a $33 billion boost over time. Despite difficult relationships in the past, delegations from Iran, Qatar, and Israel will all be officially welcomed.

While VistaJet founder Thomas Flohr's decision to set up holding company Vista Global in the Dubai International Financial Center demonstrates the kind of international commitment that Dubai has come to expect, the fear going into this year's biennial event is that it could turn out to be as big a news desert as the 2015 Dubai Airshow. Add to that the continuing question marks hanging over the Boeing 737 Max program—Flydubai has 11 Boeing 737 Max 8s and three 737 Max 9s still on the ground—and the outlook remains a little bleak. 

The Dubai Airshow nevertheless remains the world’s number-three aviation event, after Paris and Farnborough and ahead of Singapore, organizers claim. “We’re playing host to 1,300 exhibitors...and of course welcoming something like 87,000 visitors,” said Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports.

Orders are the hard currency by which the world’s four main airshows are judged, and Dubai has seen a total of just under $640 billion in cumulative aircraft deals since 1999, say the show organizers. Banner Dubai Airshow years included 2017, when total orders were just shy of $114 billion, 2013, when the figure reached $206 billion, and 2007 when more than $155 billion of deals took place. Other years, such as 2015, have been weaker.

In 2017, Emirates ordered 40 Boeing 787s worth $15.1 billion and Flydubai signed for 225 Boeing 737 Maxes valued at $27 billion, while in 2013, Emirates made its largest aircraft order ever, for 150 Boeing 777Xs and 50 Airbus A380s, together worth $99 billion. Flydubai committed that year to 111 Boeing 737s—including 100 Boeing 737 Max-8s—worth $11.4 billion at list prices.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the driving force behind the UAE’s aviation development, is expected again to lead a delegation of local dignitaries around the show sight on this year's opening day, today. “We work with His Highness's protocol team and they usually request where they want to stop, and then we add in where we know there's something new that hasn't been there before: new exhibitors, new products, new aircraft,” Michele van Akelijen, managing director of show organizers Tarsus F&E Middle East, told AIN.

In 2017, the Dubai Airshow hosted 279 delegations from 76 countries. “[The total figure] is going to go up” this year, according to van Akelijen, who emphasized the importance of military aircraft. Sheikh Mohammed himself is understood to have issued personal invitations to 84 ministers of defense from around the world.

Four conferences are taking place during the airshow: Cargo Connect, Global Air Traffic Management, and two at the show’s Space Pavilion: Tech Talks and Women in Aviation. Apollo 15 astronaut Col. Al Worden will be giving a presentation at Space Tech Talks. The Air Chiefs’ conference, for defense top brass, takes place offsite on the eve of the show on November 16. “We split [the conferences] out over two days, but only half days, morning sessions, so that everybody can still enjoy the flying display and have the meetings and networking that they need to do,” said van Akelijen.

The five-day spectacle will also see up to 165 aircraft on static display, afternoon displays from the UAE’s aerial acrobatics team Fursan Al Emarat (Knights of the Emirates), and several other civilian and military aircraft. “The flying display is the perfect opportunity for civil and military aircraft manufacturers to demonstrate their skills and capabilities to industry leaders and potential customers,” van Akelijen said. The show will wrap up on Thursday, November 21.