Despite the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the sheer number of pilots forecast to take up positions in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades had unnerved those assisting with the provision of new talent. Prior to 2020, Asia-Pacific ranked as the fastest developing aviation market in the world, easily surpassing the U.S. in air traffic movements. However, the trend has slowed to a halt due to the conservative nature of the Covid-19 response in the region.
As a result, Boeing has revised downwards its annual estimate of the number of pilots, technicians, and cabin crew required in the region in the next two decades. In 2020, it forecast a requirement for 837,000 personnel, but in 2021, reduced the figure to 819,000, a fall of 2 percent. Of those, it said, the region would require 231,000 pilots in 2021, 123,000 of them in China.
“Current aircraft backlogs don't support such a scenario, and recruitment in the market in 2022 and for the foreseeable short-term future is extremely depressed, according to the latest ICAO report,” according to Artem Sagan, CEO of PilotsGlobal, a Wilmington, Delaware-based U.S. pilot employment digital platform. “To us, the forecast number seems fragile. Current Asia-Pacific traffic is volatile, with governments keeping tight travel restrictions in place. It is rather challenging to forecast the mid-term outlook.”
Citing ICAO’s January 4 report titled “Economic Impacts of Covid-19 on Civil Aviation,” Asia-Pacific ranked slowest in terms of speed of recovery from Covid-19, Sagan said. International traffic, on which the region heavily relied, remained 80 percent down compared with 2019 levels.
Governments in the region have made tremendous efforts to contain the coronavirus, leading to tight aviation industry travel restrictions. The emergence of the Omicron strain means travel controls will likely continue to affect opportunities available to flight crew seeking employment in the region in 2022, added Sagan.
“The recovery is projected to see levels only 40 percent down on 2019 in terms of international seat capacity by year-end 2022,” he said. “The main issue is that many Asian countries, like Thailand and Singapore, rely on international travel, especially to Japan, South Korea, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) routes, as well as on international tourism routes to Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East. Domestic travel is insufficient to provide the high loads seen in the U.S.”
Sagan said the Chinese market remains open to pilots holding Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) licenses only. “Singapore, one of the major foreign pilot employers, is not recruiting foreign pilots at the moment due to the depressed international travel it heavily relies on,” explained Sagan. “The same situation prevails in Japan and South Korea, which temporarily suspended recruitment of ICAO license holders. The typical requirement we observe is flight time in the range of 3,500 to 5,000 hours for expatriate captains, and 8,000 for direct-entry captains at Chinese airlines. For first officers, an ATPL with typically 1,500 hours of total flight time is a minimum requirement to be considered for positions.”
An important consideration when the employment window reopens centers on the fact that most East Asian airlines recruit flight crew through crew leasing companies and not via direct contracts with airlines. That means airlines do not directly hire crewmembers but rather lease them through an agent.
Matthew Flaherty, vice-chancellor and head of Asia for Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Singapore (Stand 125), told AIN pilot sourcing varied from airline to airline in the region in more normal times.
“Singapore Airlines is predominantly local-pilot,” he said. “Cathay Pacific is very different; they have a large number of British and Australian pilots. Every airline is going to be fairly unique in Asia. It’s a pretty diverse part of the world. It also depends on whether you’re looking at the national flag carriers versus some of the newer low-cost carriers and the newer airlines. The new airlines need pilots and, typically, they’re spot-buying smaller airplanes, so they’re open to pilots that come from around the world.”