Boeing Sees Big Airline Fleet Growth From Middle East

The Middle East airliner fleet will more than double by 2042 with the delivery of 3,025 new jets, according to the latest commercial market outlook (CMO) published by Boeing on Sunday. The airframer predicts that new widebody models, like the 777-9 it is displaying at the Dubai Airshow this week, will account for almost 1,350 of those sales, along with 1,570 narrowbodies, some 70 purpose-built freighters, and just 35 regional jets.

In a pre-show press briefing, Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president for commercial marketing, reported that Middle East scheduled carriers have mostly bounced back from Covid disruption to the air transportation market. As of September 2023, single-aisle capacity reached 24 percent above where it stood in September 2019, while widebody capacity lagged by 6 percent.

Boosting expectations of strong investments in fleet expansion and modernization is Boeing’s assessment that load factors for the region’s airlines now exceed pre-pandemic levels, at 82 percent. The industry has seen a significant uptick in market conditions since September 2022, as revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) grew by 26 percent and available seat kilometers by 23 percent.

At the same time, the Middle East’s active fleet is approaching pre-pandemic levels. Just 14 percent of the fleet sits parked at any time, which Boeing views as a normal rate.

“The limits now are on supply rather than demand,” Hulst told reporters. “And these numbers are driving the requirements for new aircraft.”

Boeing bases its optimism about the Middle East market on more than just the fact that the region’s economy appears on track to outperform global GDP growth rate averages by 2025, ahead of Europe and North and South America. The company’s forecasters see its geographic advantage of being well connected to 80 percent of the world’s population and to regions expected to generate 70 percent of global economic growth over the next two years as putting the Middle East in a lead position for airline expansion.

Flights to and from emerging markets in Asia and Africa will primarily drive growth for Middle Eastern airlines, according to Boeing. On that basis, the new CMO sees RPKs in the Middle East growing from 800 billion in 2022 to 2.7 trillion in 2042.

Hulst said Boeing has not revised its CMO projections since the start of the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Hamas. “This and other conflicts can impact near-term demand but we don’t change our long-term outlook,” he told AIN.

In addition to the 777-9 and 787 jets, Boeing sees the next-generation 777X being “the next long-haul market leader” when it enters service in 2025. Since 2019, airlines have added more than 100 new long-haul city pairs to the schedules of Middle Eastern airports while many local carriers use widebodies for short-haul routes. Boeing now claims to account for 66 percent of the region’s widebody fleet and 60 percent of aircraft on order in that category.

The manufacturer also sees scope for further growth in demand for its 737 Max narrowbodies, 80 of which have entered service with Middle Eastern carriers, with another 200 on order. The CMO report indicated that flight lengths for those aircraft average 1,016 nm, which Boeing says is 20 percent longer than the rival Airbus A320neo. Since 2019, more than 300 new city pairs have joined the region’s narrowbody network.

In the air cargo sector, Boeing sees further growth from passenger-carrying airlines also operating freighters. In 2022, Qatar Airways climbed to the number-two position among global freight carriers, followed by Emirates in fourth place.

Boeing predicts its optimistic projections for airline growth between now and 2042 will spur $335 billion in supporting services, including maintenance, parts distribution, digital solutions, and training. The company said the Middle East industry will need to recruit 215,000 new personnel, including pilots, cabin crew, and technicians.