In a little more than 12 months, investors in eVTOL aircraft developers have been led to believe they can start expecting commercial returns to start flowing. However, there are still plenty of question marks over the pace and form that the much-vaunted advanced air mobility (AAM) revolution will take. What is clear is that natural selection is taking its course, meaning that just a handful of frontrunners are now vying to be in the first wave to operate the new aircraft.
At the same time, others are not as fixated on being first to market in 2025 and don’t view 2024 with the same criticality that it has for the likes of Archer, Joby, Volocopter, Lilium, Beta Technologies, and Vertical Aerospace. Airbus, Wisk (owned by Boeing), Jaunt, Eve (majority shareholder: Embraer), Supernal, Overair, and Odys Aviation are among the pioneers willing to take more time to come to market on their own terms, believing that changing air transportation fundamentally is a long-distance race rather than a sprint.
There was a time when 2024 was the new 2023 in terms of AAM timelines, but let’s not write off the year just ending without acknowledging the world’s first type certification of an eVTOL aircraft. This was achieved in October when the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a type certificate to Guangzhou-based, Wall Street-listed EHang for its two-seat EH216-S vehicle.
China Exerts Its Autonomy in eVTOL Aircraft Regulation
What made the approval all the more remarkable is that the aircraft will be operated entirely autonomously, something that Western regulators appear to be nowhere close to signing off on for passenger-carrying operations. As of the end of October, EHang was still working to secure the production and airworthiness certificates it needs to progress to series production and the launch of commercial services for applications expected to include tourist sightseeing trips.
There can be no doubt that the Chinese government’s emphatic backing for AAM initiatives, as part of a national plan to stimulate the so-called low-altitude economy of the People’s Republic, has been a factor in EHang’s fast track to certification. But, equally, the highly focused start-up has taken control of its own destiny, leveraging the latitude granted by the CAAC to conduct many hours of flight trials.
At Singapore-based consultancy Alton Aviation, Joshua Ng told AIN that, while autonomous flights are ultimately the best path to scaling up AAM, it will take a gradual approach. That’s what he expects to see in China with EHang and other start-ups, including AutoFlight and TCab Tech. “When we think about the crawl-walk-run approach in the context of a centralized [state] like China, the crawl phase will mean a limited certification at first, so we don’t expect thousands of vehicles to start—and there could be quite limited operations before the envelope expands.”
Western rivals remain on a different path, pursuing initial type certifications from both European air safety regulator EASA and the FAA in the U.S. While the eVTOL frontrunners appear to be making solid progress, both agencies have made it clear that reaching their high bars for safety will trump any promises made to investors when it comes to entry into service.
FAA to Industry: Hey, Not So Fast
In August, the comment period closed for the FAA’s proposed Special Federal Aviation Regulation for Integration of Powered Lift: Pilot Certification and Operations. Submissions from industry groups including the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) expressed strong concern on four counts, including the following: the basis on which pilots will be certified to fly the new aircraft types; dual controls in the flight deck; flight simulation training devices; and requirements for the energy reserves that electric aircraft will need to have to ensure they can land safely in the event of an emergency.
The latter point on energy reserves is especially critical and could potentially limit the already constrained range of eVTOL aircraft dependent on current battery technology. In recent months, manufacturers like Archer have subtly started underlining not only their maximum range of up to around 100 miles but the fact that most of their flights are expected to be short, urban hops over traffic of just 10 to 20 minutes.
Industry groups are clearly concerned that the FAA’s apparent rethink could compromise efforts to launch AAM operations in the U.S. from 2025, an objective for which the agency has expressed support via its recently published Innovate 28 AAM plan. The confirmation in October of Mike Whitaker as full-time FAA Administrator, after a 19-month gap, could sharpen the agency’s focus. It continues to face a mountainous backlog of work and remains compromised by political failure to reach consensus over its long-term funding. Whitaker’s most recent previous job as COO of eVTOL aircraft developer Supernal has raised spirits among the AAM pioneers.
Across the Atlantic, EASA appears to be ahead of the FAA based on the Special Conditions VTOL regulatory foundation, but it can’t be expected to cut any corners to meet the industry’s ambitious timelines. The new year will see an important test case as Germany’s Volocopter seeks to be ready to complete type certification in time to operate the first fare-paying eVTOL rides with its two-seat, piloted VoloCity aircraft during the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, opening on July 26. The plan depends on getting EASA’s sign-off by the end of the second quarter, with Volocopter stepping up flight testing since the summer of 2023 and securing an air operator’s certificate to establish its credentials.
While acknowledging the progress that companies are making towards eVTOL type certification, at Alton Aviation Alan Lim is urging clients to “think about the next steps” in 2024. Most notably, they should consider the approach towards achieving mass production, which the likes of Joby and Archer are now doing by establishing production facilities outside high-cost Silicon Valley. He also expects to see more and more partnerships emerging as companies look to join up the dots for the so-called AAM ecosystem and spread the costs associated with these.
Arguably, some of the eVTOL developers who are not fixated on being first to market could stand to benefit from lessons learned from this intense drive towards type certification, series production, and first deliveries. What is clear is that despite the start-up’s insistence that they will deliver unprecedented levels of air transportation safety, regulators—in the West, at least—are not prepared to take their word for it. “Walk the walk, don’t talk the talk,” seems to be an apt New Year’s resolution for the AAM pioneers, who also face plenty of hurdles in establishing the supporting infrastructure required for the new air services, including vertiports and ways to safely integrate the new aircraft into existing airspace.
Shifting Business Models
Increasingly, some observers feel that eVTOL use cases for missions such as logistics and supporting medical services could gain traction more quickly than the much-anticipated air taxi services. Others feel that so-called regional air mobility—in which electric or hybrid-electric fixed-wing eSTOL aircraft open up commercial air services to under-served communities—could come to be prioritized over ferrying people around city centers.
“We’re seeing business models starting to evolve more,” Lim said. “The scheduled airlines are starting to express how they see eVTOLs working, but also business aviation operators are getting involved around applications that could include air medical services and oil and gas [support].”
While viewing initiatives such as the Paris Olympic Games as symbolically significant for the new sector, the Alton team couldn’t rule out more delays to type certification. Lim expressed encouragement that investors have continued to keep putting money into the AAM sector, albeit more selectively than during the SPAC-fueled gold rush that peaked in 2021. “We are not seeing a complete shut out [of investors] from the market despite the technology sector being beaten up by high-interest rates,” he concluded. “The winners are starting to win more; we’re seeing important investments from the military, and some companies saying they don’t want to be first to market, but do want to be the first to scale up.”