FAA pilot certificate issuances jumped by 19% year over year (YOY) in April, with the number of air transport pilot (ATP) certificates up 14%. However, this was down by 4% from 2019 levels, industry analyst Jefferies reported.
The agency issued 9,899 pilot certificates in April, including 5,089 student, 2,282 private, 1,529 commercial, and 999 ATP. While up YOY, this marked a 13% dip from March, when 11,324 certificates were issued in all.
Jefferies said the YOY increase in ATPs suggests U.S. airlines should have success in finding pilots. ATP issuances were 5% above the 12-month average. Commercial certificates, up 11% YOY in April, are down by 1% from 2019 levels. Student certificates were down 9% over 2019 levels, even while up 23% YOY. Private certificates increased by 18% YOY and inched up by 1% from pre-pandemic levels.
While up YOY, the numbers suggest a flattening from surges over the past year. On a trailing 12-month basis, FAA certificates are 28% above pre-pandemic levels, with student certificates 23% higher; ATP, +53%; and commercial, +19%.
Jefferies estimates the net U.S. airline population grew by 1.9% last year, to 141,800. This represents a 1% deficit of needs but is buffered by aircraft delivery delays, the analyst said. As aircraft deliveries pick up and pilot retirements increase, Jefferies believes the undersupply could grow, potentially reaching a 7% shortage by 2030.