Report Sees Minimal Role for SAF in Cutting Emissions

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will make only a marginal contribution to reducing aircraft emissions before 2030, according to a new report published on October 30 by Carbon Tracker. The UK-based independent financial think tank’s “Fuel Disclosure” report concluded that alternatives to jet-A are “unlikely to make a significant dent” in emissions this decade.

The group’s analysts concluded that high costs and limited feedstocks will curtail the impact of SAF. “Even if all existing, under development, and announced projects operate at full capacity, [SAF] production would only supply around 5% of global jet fuel demand and meet less than half of the expected growth in total jet fuel consumption,” Carbon Tracker concluded.

Apart from high production and distribution costs for SAF, the report said that perceived technology, feedstock, and policy risks are constraining funding for the sector, which the report defines as “weak bankability.” Other factors identified as hurdles to progress include regulatory uncertainty, competition for feedstocks with other sectors, and uncertainty over how much SAF aircraft operators will buy, resulting in revenue uncertainty for producers.

“On top of high costs, offtaker hesitation, and financing constraints, most alternative jet fuels are also saddled with a handful of environmental downsides,” commented Saidrasul Ashrafkhanov, lead author for the report. “These fuels may someday have a larger role in decarbonizing aviation, but the burden of proof is on the industry to show that it can find a pathway that will deliver alternative jet fuel that’s at once sustainable, abundant, and feasible.”

Carbon Tracker is urging companies to “right-size” the role of SAF in their businesses, prioritizing “pathways with robust sustainability credentials and clearer cost trajectories” while avoiding “options with weak life cycle performance or material nature/food security risks.” The company argued that for flights on routes of less than 500 kilometers (270 nm), the priority should be on investing in battery-electric, hydrogen-electric, and hybrid-electric aircraft.

Sustainability specialists like 4Air are focused on helping aircraft operators, airports and other stakeholders to pursue multiple components towards decarbonization. According to 4Air, in addition to SAF, these will include carbon offsets, the introduction of new aircraft and propulsion technology (fleet renewal and electrification), and improvements to infrastructure and operational efficiencies (including air traffic management).