Aircraft Operators Told To Brace for Gulf Flight Disruption

Dyami Security Intelligence is warning its aviation clients to prepare for disruption to flights in and around the Persian Gulf region. The group’s just-released security assessment says U.S. and Israeli forces are preparing for imminent attacks on Iran, which could trigger security threats in neighboring countries and airspace.

According to Dyami’s analysts, increased movements of combat and support aircraft in the Mediterranean Sea and Gulf suggest that the Pentagon is now moving from a “signalling” posture to a state of “executable readiness.” Indirect diplomatic discussions involving Iranian and U.S. officials in Geneva have continued this week, with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghci saying yesterday that some progress has occurred in discussions focused mainly on Iran’s nuclear program.

“Commercial air operators in the Middle East should anticipate a rapidly changing airspace environment if military operations commence,” warned the Dyami analysts. “Short-notice airspace closures, expanded restricted zones, GPS interference, increased military traffic, and possible missile or drone activity across Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, western Iran, and adjacent FIRs are a plausible risk.”

Dyami’s report concluded that attacks on Iran could start at the end of this week and may span several weeks, with Pentagon plans apparently including “an opening wave” to degrade Iranian strategic capabilities followed by strikes against supporting infrastructure. It says there will be minimal warning of what would be the first U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran since June 2025.

However, another aviation security group, Osprey Flight Support, told AIN it believes that military action may be another two or three weeks away and so it has not yet raised its risk rating for the region. The company pointed to factors such as a lack of GPS interference in local airspace and diplomatic travel advisories, as well as the fact that a second U.S. aircraft carriers is still 7 to 10 days from reaching the conflict zone.

Last year’s campaign prompted Iran to launch drone attacks on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. In recent days, the U.S. has relocated RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft from that facility to an air base on the Greek island of Crete.

The Netherlands-based Dyami team, which also advises business aircraft operators, has told clients to expect airspace disruption and rerouting of flights within hours of any military action starting. “Operators should review contingency routing, fuel planning, diversion alternates, and notam monitoring procedures, and be prepared for immediate regulatory directives and ATC flow restrictions across the region.”

East African Security Threats

Meanwhile, Osprey Flight Solutions on Tuesday warned its clients about danger from ongoing armed conflict in northern Ethiopia. The company pointed out that military standoffs during January between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces in the Amhara and Tigray regions resulted in suspension of flight operations at airports including Bahir Dar (HABD), Gondar (HAGN), Lalibela (HALL), Mekelle (HAMK), Axum (HAAX), Shire Indaselassie (HASR), and Humera (HAHU).

Osprey's analysts warned of threats to aircraft from surface-to-air missiles up to altitudes of 26,000 feet, as well as to airport infrastructure. The company is also closely monitoring aviation security risks in the Gulf.