AINsight: Is Bizav Resilience Enough for War Challenges?

Business aviation prides itself on being resilient and adaptable in equal measure, but the fallout from the blitz launched on Iran a week ago by Israel and the U.S. is now severely testing these attributes. As air charter brokers and operators scramble to evacuate a small minority of the thousands of expats stranded in Gulf states under attack from Iranian missiles and drones, industry leaders are pondering how long and deep the conflict’s impact could be.

During a briefing yesterday by security group International SOS, Hany Bakr, senior v-p for aviation and maritime sectors at its MedAire division, cautioned that the backlog of displaced people and aircraft could take months to clear, and that is on the basis of hostilities ceasing. Authorities in the region appear to be prioritizing their countries’ major airlines in granting access to the limited air corridors that have partially opened up through Oman and Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, the war’s radius is now extending westward as far as Turkey, where NATO forces have shot down at least one Iranian drone. On the northern flank, the passenger terminal at Nakhchivan International Airport in southern Azerbaijan was damaged by a drone, raising the possibility of a counter-attack from the former Soviet republic.

WingX data released yesterday charts both the flow of business jets away from the combat zone and the extent to which many others are still trapped there. FBOs in Gulf states—including the UAE and Qatar—remain open but have been mainly serving as parking lots as their customers ponder next steps in a region that has until now seen strong growth in business aviation.

The International SOS team reported that airspace in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Israel, and Iran remains closed, while significant route restrictions apply in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Syria, and now Azerbaijan. With Lebanon now under attack by Israeli forces, the air corridors could be further constrained even as European governments are dispatching warships and fighters to the eastern Mediterranean for roles described as defensive.

Did Operators Heed Warnings?

All of this begs the question of whether the wider aviation sector adequately anticipated levels of disruption reminiscent of the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Operators paying attention to security experts should have been aware of the gathering storm for several weeks, allowing time for risk assessments and mitigating action to be put in place.

Osprey Flight Solutions raised its risk rating for the region to warn of imminent military strikes 36 hours before they began on February 28. More than a week earlier, Dyami Security Intelligence urged its clients to prepare for significant disruption from a conflict it felt was on the cusp of erupting.

The duration of the war and the circumstances in which it comes to an end will surely have a big bearing on the Gulf region’s future as an air traffic hub. Time will tell whether locations like Dubai can rebuild the safe-haven reputation that has fueled both exponential airline growth and rising demand for private aviation in an oasis for personal wealth.

Meanwhile, the cost of jet-A is spiking as crude oil prices surge close to $90 a barrel. Energy analysts have warned that this trajectory can only keep rising due to market constraints such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea.

But images of high-net-worth individuals fleeing from missile debris may live longer in the memory than the cost of gassing up stranded business jets. Nonetheless, the hastily-booked SUV rides across the desert to Saudi Arabia doubtless seemed a better option than listening to the U.S. State Department, which took around 48 hours after the conflict began to advise American travelers to book scheduled airline flights that were no longer available.

On Thursday evening, a government-chartered Air France flight sent to rescue French citizens from the UAE had to divert and return to France after reports of missile attacks in the area. According to Dyami, the French government has determined that repatriation flights will only resume when secure conditions can be guaranteed. However, Oman's capital Muscat is still being used as a hub for private evacuation flights.

Multiple other governments are now experiencing the limits of their ability to rescue their citizens from war zones. There is no doubt that the private aircraft charter sector is rising to the occasion as the conduit through which many of the evacuation flights are being arranged, but the lessons of the past week seem likely to send corporate risk managers back to the drawing board.