Gulf Flight Risks Continue Despite Iran Ceasefire

Three days into a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war, aircraft operators are still dealing with serious security risks around flights in and around the Gulf region, according to International SOS. In a briefing this morning, the risk management group warned that much uncertainty about safety at airports remains across the region, and the partial reopening of some airspace is uneven and conditional.

Meanwhile, EASA today extended its conflict zone information bulletin for the Middle East and Gulf region to remain in effect through April 24. The European agency is still urging all operators to avoid airspace at all flight levels, except for some corridors in Saudi Arabia and Oman above FL320.

“Prior flight approvals are still needed at all times for defined routes and altitudes,” advised Hany Bakr, senior v-p for aviation and maritime security with International SOS subsidiary MedAire. The group is continuing to warn of risks from GPS interference and spoofing and, in particular, of dangers in the airspace over Israel and Lebanon as military action continues there despite the U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

Analysts at Osprey Flight Solutions echoed the ongoing security concerns for aircraft operators. In a bulletin released yesterday, the company highlighted continuing Iranian drone and missile strikes in Gulf states, as well as continuing Israeli conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Osprey is advising clients to conduct detailed risk assessments and make contingency plans for every planned flight in the region. “Often the most operationally challenging phase for aviation is not during the conflict, but immediately after a ceasefire when airspace status is unclear, but threat remains,” commented the company’s chief intelligence officer, Matthew Borie.

During the International SOS briefing, Matthew Vaughan, director of aviation security at the International Air Transport Association, said that airlines are also now struggling with supply-chain constraints to keep their aircraft serviceable, as well as restrictions and cost increases around insurance and fuel. He praised Gulf carriers for their resilience but predicted that they and airlines based outside the region will face ongoing operational and business challenges in the coming weeks, even if the ceasefire holds.

According to International SOS, global jet fuel inventories “face acute tightening from Middle East supply disruptions, with Europe and Asia-Pacific hubs rationing uplifts.” The company said that by late spring, operators should expect “cascading capacity cuts across transatlantic and Europe-Asia routes” if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted to shipping. This could result in fleet groundings and more extensive reroutings for scheduled services.

International SOS has warned clients to be ready to suspend flight operations at short notice. Its analysts emphasized the need for “robust, dynamic real-time threat monitoring and aviation security risk assessment.”