Aircraft Operators Face Rising Threats in Gulf and Russia

Security experts have stepped up advisories to aircraft operators around rising threat levels in Russian and Gulf region airspace. The increased risk to air traffic was flagged as military conflict escalated in both regions this week.

On Tuesday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned airlines that Ukraine’s ongoing drone attacks mean that Russian airspace should be considered “completely unsafe” and should be “effectively” closed. While insisting that Ukrainian forces are not targeting civil aircraft, the country’s government urged operators and insurers to accept that “the war started by Russia is closing its skies.”

Meanwhile, Iranian drone and missile strikes in response to U.S. attacks have targeted air bases and airports in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain. On Wednesday, Osprey Flight Solutions warned clients that airspace disruption and threats to infrastructure could extend to the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel if the conflict continues to escalate.

Also on Wednesday, the German government confirmed that Russia was responsible for a drone attack last month at Leipzig/Halle Airport that interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said followed “the well-established pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe.” The Putin administration accused officials in Berlin of staging evidence against it while also signaling its intention to retaliate against countries including Germany and the UK that are arming Ukraine.

According to Dyami Security Intelligence, Zelenskyy’s declared goal of increasing daily attacks with 1,000 long-range drones might not close all airspace, but could force airport and airspace closures, even if the drones are intercepted. The company warned that civilian aircraft could be impacted by Russian countermeasures, including missile intercepts and electronic interference, adding that insurance costs and restrictions are likely to increase for Chinese, Gulf, and Turkish carriers still using Russian airspace.

Expect Diversions and Closures

For both the Gulf and Russia/Ukraine conflict zones, Osprey urged clients to conduct risk-based assessments of diversion routes and alternate airports. It said that Iran’s extensive use of rockets and missiles poses a threat to civil aircraft at all altitudes and without warning, exposing overflying aircraft “to midair collision, route diversion, and/or debris splashdown issues.”

In a white paper published on Wednesday, International SOS said that its survey of how companies have responded to the first six months of the ongoing Middle East conflict revealed gaps in workforce visibility, the clarity of decision-making, and the speed at which duty of care had been discharged. According to Diane Maxwell, CEO of Airmic, a trade group for risk and insurance managers that is partnered with Intl SOS, the crisis has triggered an operational challenge but has also proved to be “a moment that tested assumptions about the resilience of organizations and their people.”

Just over half the corporate leaders surveyed said they had no formal plans for evacuating employees from the Middle East. In a webinar on the same day, James Wood, International SOS’s regional security director for Northern Europe, urged companies to adopt a flexible approach to crisis management in which plans can be adapted rather than being based on predictable exact outcomes.

According to Adam Lakhani, the group’s security director for information and analysis for Europe, Maghreb, and West and Central Africa, there are no expectations that there will be an “off ramp” to conclude the Gulf conflict. “We have to expect ambiguity and uncertainty to persist,” he commented, indicating that it could stagnate while remaining dangerous, as has been the case with the war between Russia and Ukraine.