Analysts: Bizjet Deliveries Down in 2016, Flat in 2017

While final numbers aren’t available yet, JetNet iQ managing director Rollie Vincent has estimated 661 new business jets were delivered last year, down from 718 shipments in 2015. And the outlook for business jet deliveries this year is expected to be “flat relative to 2016,” according to Teal Group vice president of analysis Richard Aboulafia, meaning that a recovery in the industry will likely remain elusive in 2017.

“As expected, 2016 was a transitional year—a time when the large-cabin OEMs were faced with some tough decisions regarding production rates. The severity of the downturn in new aircraft prices and residual values has been the story of the year in 2016, reflecting the oversupplied market,” said Vincent.

Aboulafia said the large-cabin segment is still under some pressure, so while total number of units delievered might rise slightly this year, the overall market value mightdecline slightly. Main drivers of market instability are low oil prices—which is hampering resource-extraction companies, economies and emerging markets—and the continued “government-implied disapproval of public wealth displays” in China, he added.

According to both analysts, the U.S. is expected to be the “primary source” for aircraft sales in the new year. Vincent said the U.S. market is bolstered by a “relatively strong economy and hope for business-friendly policies—including lower corporate taxes, higher infrastructure spending and additional deregulation—from the new Trump Administration.”