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A move toward pilotless airplanes represents a $35 billion global opportunity, including $3 billion in savings in the business aviation sector, and could technically be ready for commercial operations by 2025, a new report from Swiss analyst UBS asserts. The report—“Flying solo: how far are we down the path towards pilotless planes?”—delves into the cost savings and other benefits, technical feasibility and challenges facing the use of pilotless airplanes.
Industry is well en route to an automated airplane, the report states, noting, “In the not-too-distant future, we would expect to see a situation where flights are pilotless or the number of pilots shrinks to one, with a remote pilot based on the ground and highly secure ground-to-air communications.”
Technology for remote-control drones exists today and this technology can be adapted for use in helicopters, general aviation, smaller business jets and eventually commercial aviation.
“A number of manufacturers are already involved in making pilotless planes a reality,” the report says, pointing to initiatives under way at Boeing and Airbus, as well as preparations Embraer has been making in anticipation of the possibility of a single-pilot operation by as early as 2020. NASA further is exploring single-pilot concepts under which one pilot remaining in the cockpit works in tandem with a ground operator.
The report also found considerable activity in efforts on the “sky taxi” front, citing a half-dozen examples, including Uber’s work with companies such as Bell Helicopter, Aurora, Mooney, Embraer and Pipistrel to make flying taxis. Uber is in negotiations with Dubai and Dallas-Fort Worth to begin demonstrations in 2020.
“Technically speaking, remotely controlled planes carrying passengers and cargo could appear by 2025,” the report says.
As for benefits, the report cites the potential of saving $35 billion in annual pilot, training, fuel and insurance costs. As for business jets, the report estimates two-thirds are flown by professional pilots, typically with two pilots. Factoring in average salaries, pilotless airplanes could produce up to $2 billion in annual savings in pilot costs, the report speculates. In addition, optimized flight paths that could come with the technologies could produce another $1 billion in fuel savings.
Similarly, in the civil helicopter industry, up to $2.1 billion could be saved “if pilots were removed totally.” While the report looks at the possibility of pilotless operations, UBS sees the transition to single-pilot operations first. In addition, the report cites safety benefits and suggests that improved safety could result in “hundreds of millions” in insurance premium savings.
But the report sees several obstacles, including public perception. More than half (54 percent) of 8,000 people surveyed said they would be unlikely to fly aboard a pilotless airplane. Only 17 percent of those surveyed said they would take such a flight. But it also says this is generational. Some 30 percent of younger respondents (aged 18 to 34) indicated they would be willing to fly aboard a pilotless airplane.
A move toward pilotless airplanes represents a $35 billion global opportunity, including $3 billion in savings in the business aviation sector, and could technically be ready for commercial operations by 2025, a recent report from Swiss analyst UBS asserts. The report—“Flying solo: how far are we down the path towards pilotless planes?”—delves into the cost savings and other benefits, technical feasibility and challenges facing the use of pilotless airplanes.
Industry is well en route to an automated airplane, the report states, noting, “In the not-too-distant future, we would expect to see a situation where flights are pilotless or the number of pilots shrinks to one, with a remote pilot based on the ground and highly secure ground-to-air communications.”
John Langford, chairman and CEO of Aurora Flight Sciences, a company that is exploring optionally piloted, single-pilot and unmanned technologies, agreed, saying this future is coming sooner than most expect. “We have technologies that go across the aviation spectrum and turn upside down what you think about airplanes and what you think about this industry,” Langford said.
“This stuff is 100-percent real,” added Greg Bowles, vice president of global innovation and policy for the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.
Technology for remote-control drones exists today and this technology can be adapted for use in helicopters, general aviation, smaller business jets and eventually commercial aviation, the UBS report said, and both Bowles and Langford agree.
“Unmanned is really spurring on this industry. What is possible today is filtering down from drones,” Bowles said.
Langford pointed to the explosive growth of the unmanned market. “The sensors and computer software have made these things so easy to fly that literally anyone can do it. The technology has moved from the realm of enthusiasts into a world where people can use them for economic purposes,” he said. “All of this is being driven by technology that is so easy to use that it has masked the complexity. That is what is going to happen to the rest of aviation.”
Manufacturers are already involved in making pilotless airplanes a reality, the UBS report adds, pointing to initiatives under way at Boeing and Airbus. NASA further is exploring single-pilot concepts under which one pilot in the cockpit works in tandem with a ground operator.
The report also found considerable activity in efforts on the “sky taxi” front, citing a half-dozen examples, including Uber’s work with companies such as Bell Helicopter, Aurora, Mooney, Embraer and Pipistrel to make flying taxis. Uber is in negotiations with Dubai and Dallas-Fort Worth to begin demonstrations in 2020.
Aurora already has been testing its VTOL for Uber, last spring unveiling its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for the so-called Uber Elevate Network. The eVTOL concept was derived from Aurora’s XV-24A X-plane program under way for the U.S. Department of Defense and other autonomous aircraft the company has developed over the years. These include Aurora’s Centaur optionally piloted aircraft.
The Centaur, meanwhile, has tested a portable robot called Alias (Aircrew Labor In-cockpit Automation System) that can be trained to fly a variety of aircraft.
Bizav Manufacturers Involved
Sikorsky also has been testing the Alias technology under a Darpa contract, integrating its Matrix automation technology in a Cessna Caravan and the Sikorsky Autonomy Research Aircraft (Sara).
Airbus Helicopters is exploring the electric VTOL market and plans to begin flight-testing the four-seat, all-electric CityAirbus in 2018, with manned flights starting in 2019, according to CEO Guillaume Faury.
The company plans for initial operations to be flown by a pilot, followed by autonomous operations as they become possible both from a regulatory and operational standpoint.
Embraer does not have plans for pilotless operations of its current business jet lineup, but the future concepts have captured enough attention that Embraer established a Global Business Center at its Melbourne, Florida facility that will be dedicated to exploring a range of new “disruptive” technologies that could involve manufacturing, air transportation or even space travel.
The Melbourne center will serve as the central clearinghouse for these technologies, but plans call to dispatch “innovation teams,” first in the Silicon Valley high-technology corridor of California and then later this year in Boston.
“Technically speaking, remotely controlled planes carrying passengers and cargo could appear by 2025,” the UBS report predicts.
As for benefits, the UBS report cites the potential of saving $35 billion in annual pilot, training, fuel and insurance costs. As for business jets, the report estimates two-thirds are flown by professional pilots, typically with two pilots. Factoring in average salaries, pilotless airplanes could produce up to $2 billion in annual savings in pilot costs, the report speculates. In addition, optimized flight paths that could come with the technologies could produce another $1 billion in fuel savings.
Similarly, in the civil helicopter industry, up to $2.1 billion could be saved “if pilots were removed totally.” While the report looks at the possibility of pilotless operations, UBS sees the transition to single-pilot operations first. In addition, the report cites safety benefits and suggests that improved safety could result in “hundreds of millions” in insurance premium savings.
But the report sees several obstacles, including public perception. More than half (54 percent) of 8,000 people surveyed said they would be unlikely to fly aboard a pilotless airplane. Only 17 percent of those surveyed said they would take such a flight. But it also says this is generational. Some 30 percent of younger respondents (aged 18 to 34) indicated they would be willing to fly aboard a pilotless airplane.
Bombardier, which noted considerable progress of the unmanned technologies, also sees current obstacles, such as concerns about crew fatigue, air traffic safety of mixed manned and unmanned flights and passenger acceptance. “We are closely monitoring industry trends and air regulatory authorities’ potential recommendations on this topic,” a spokesperson said.
To Bowles, public acceptance will be a matter of a few years, and he believes the auto industry will help bring the requisite cultural changes. In a few years, more people will be riding in self-driving cars, he said. “The first months will be a little weird. After that, you will never look back.”
Safety benefits will be clearly apparent, Bowles added. “We will have that kind of safety expectation for flying. I think pilots will fly aircraft for a long, long time. I think we will make aircraft that are really fun to fly. But we will be making systems that are safer and will provide the option of not controlling the vehicle.”