FAA Forecast: GA Pilot Population To Continue Slow Slide

Despite the release of the BasicMed option to ease the third-class medical requirement, the number of general aviation pilots is anticipated to continue to contract over the next two decades. The recently released FAA 2018 to 2038 forecast projects that the active general aviation pilot population—excluding student pilots and air transport pilot (ATP) certificate holders—is expected to decrease by 22,600, an average of about 0.4 percent annually over the forecast period.

The number of rivate pilot certificates is expected to drop at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent through 2038, the FAA predicted. Meanwhile, the number of commercial pilot certificates is expected to shrink by 0.5 percent over the forecast period. A bright spot for general aviation is the light-sport pilot category, with 3.3 percent annual growth anticipated through 2038.

The ATP category also is expected to increase during the forecast years, in part boosted by the August 2013 regulatory change requiring commercial airline first officers to hold an ATP. “After that date, the FAA data showed a faster decline in commercial pilot numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of increase in ATP certificates,” the agency said, projecting that the number of ATP certificates will jump by 22,600, or 0.7 percent annually, over the forecast period.

The FAA suspended its student pilot forecast after an April 2016 rule change removed the expiration date on new student pilot certificates. “This change generates a cumulative increase in the certificate numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private pilot or higher,” the agency said. “There is not sufficient data currently to perform a reliable forecast for the student pilots.”

In total, the certified pilot population stood at 609,306 at the end of 2017.