Analyst: Bizav Recovery Shifts from U-shape to V-shape

Citing several data points, Baird Equity Research senior research analyst Peter Arment is seeing a U-shaped recovery in business aviation shifting to a V-shaped one, according to his note to investors this week. “Business flight activity is making a comeback over the past few weeks as recent daily data points to a near V-shape recovery,” Arment said.

Noting that 7,383 business flights occurred globally on June 17, Arment said that represented a 1 percent decline year-over-year and a 100 percent increase month-over-month. “Flights are continuing on the path to recovery in June, now representing a 21 percent decline [month-to-date] versus 2019 after May activity was down 44 percent and April down 68 percent.”

According to Baird’s proprietary business jet operator dataset, 10-day average activity at fractional provider NetJets has increased 26 percent from its previous 10-day average and 32 percent compared with the one before that. Meanwhile, according to Baird’s dataset, Flexjet’s activity has increased 26 percent month-to-date.

Among turbine business aircraft airframers, Cessna models saw a 14.4 percent year-over-year increase in flights on June 17 and its June activity is down 13 percent compared with declines of 36 percent for Gulfstream, 33 percent for Dassault Falcon, 31 percent for Bombardier, and 26 percent for Embraer, Arment wrote.

Citing a 117 percent increase in new customers between March 1 and June 8 at charter broker and jet card provider Magellan Jets, he also noted that business aviation is benefitting from the pandemic with more high-net-worth passengers choosing private aviation over commercial air travel. Arment wrote that 90 percent of recent travel through Magellan was for personal reasons. “This is a tailwind we expect to continue as business travel becomes more desirable as a result of the pandemic,” he said.