The $55 billion civil helicopter market will continue its robust recovery in the coming years, according to a forecast from consultancy IBA. Market-specific factors driving the recovery include the easing of supply-chain constraints, continued growth of helicopter leasing, expansion of helicopter EMS and wind farm service, and increasing demand for super-medium helicopters. Overall, IBA sees 2023 deliveries of civil turbine engine helicopters to fall in the 475 to 525-unit range against an in-service fleet of 22,000 aircraft.
IBA expects heavy leasing demand for the Leonardo AW139 intermediate twin and Sikorsky S-92A heavy twin, predominantly from offshore energy customers, with overall lease rates recovering to between 110 and 112 percent of 2019 levels. However, that demand does not necessarily translate into significant new production of heavy helicopters, where IBA predicts a scant four deliveries this year. Nor does it mean that demand will necessarily be absorbed by the emerging super-medium class—IBA anticipates just ten 2023 deliveries in a group that includes the Leonardo AW189 and Airbus H175.
The picture appears much brighter for light and medium helicopters, which includes the Airbus H125 and H145 and the Bell 407. IBA estimates up to 360 deliveries in this class in 2023, above its five-year annual average of 350. IBA predicts continued growth in this class as helicopter EMS will grow from 14 percent to 19 percent of the overall helicopter market and wind turbine servicing will increase from 4 percent to 7 percent.
Meanwhile, deliveries of intermediate and medium-class helicopters, a group that includes the AW139 and Bell 412, should see a fairly dramatic increase this year, to 75—up 20 units from last year. This demand is being driven by offshore, EMS, and search-and-rescue missions.