BRICS is the snappy acronym for the geopolitical pact that unites Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The term was coined in 2001 by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill, who, at a time when South Africa wasn’t yet in the group, said the first four nations would by 2050 dominate the global economy. Today, the five states account for 42 percent of the world’s population.
So it’s little wonder that in the first decade of this century, business aircraft sales executives were salivating over the prospect of penetrating these exciting new markets. Trade shows like ABACE in China, LABACE in Brazil, and JetExpo in Russia were hot-ticket events. Today, I blush when I recall that I was one of many breathlessly excited cheerleaders for the impact the BRIC block (as it then was) could have on the industry.
Why do I blush? Because BRICS is now at the heart of the potentially violent discord between the traditional Western powers and states that reject their hegemony. BRICS is an undeclared rival to the G7 group that includes the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK. That might seem like a bit of healthy competition until you keep in mind that India, China, and South Africa seem content to accept Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Then last week, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he saw no reason why Putin shouldn’t come to the South American country for next year’s BRICS huddle, even though he is facing war crimes charges under a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. Brazilian government lawyers subsequently leaned on him to water down the warm invitation to the former KGB enforcer.
Russia is supposed to be in the grip of punitive sanctions that forbid, among many other things, the importation of aircraft and parts. So, clearly, legitimate business aviation enterprises should not be doing business there.
And they are not, but a high probability exists that parts are illicitly getting into Russia through third parties since Western aircraft appear to still be operating there almost 19 months after Ukraine’s border was violated. And that raises serious concerns about which nefarious paths are being used to bust the sanctions.
One of the aircraft operating in Russia until recently was an Embraer Legacy 600 used by the Wagner Group, whose main business model is deploying mercenaries (many of them violent criminals recruited from Russian jails) to Ukraine and other trouble spots such as Africa’s basket-case Saheel region. But then on August 23, the aircraft had “an accident” killing mobster and Putin nemesis Yevgeny Prigozhin and nine others.
The Kremlin has forbidden the country’s Interstate Aviation Committee from launching an investigation, with a criminal probe supposedly having been initiated. For anyone who believes that the investigation will be conducted objectively and in accordance with the rule of law, I have two tickets to sell to watch me dance with the Royal Ballet.
This week, respected security consultancy Dyami concluded that the aircraft was likely destroyed by an air-to-air missile, and yet Russia is openly flouting ICAO protocols for investigating the event.
Russia is a rogue state that this week sought to extend its friendship group beyond the BRICS leaders to the poster child for rogue states, North Korea, which is set to supply more munitions to kill Ukrainians. To paraphrase the proverb: judge them by the company they keep.
For now, Russia must remain ostracized from the international aviation community. The Kremlin’s actions in blocking the repatriation or safe-guarding of Western-funded aircraft trapped in Russia after the invasion have resulted in millions of dollars worth of assets being written off. What finance company or manufacturer will want to do business there in the future?
And then there’s China, where President Xi is doubtless pondering whether his friend Putin’s power grab in Ukraine sets a precedent for him to seize Taiwan. An aviation professional whose judgment I respect returned this week from a visit to China. Though he represented a well-recognized international group, he told me, visa bureaucracy was as irksome as ever and his movements were closely tracked even though he never strayed from venues where he had been invited.
In my view, the ABACE show should not return to its pre-Covid venue, Shanghai; instead, it should be staged in a more neutral Asia-Pacific location such as Singapore. That would probably make it easier for Chinese customers to participate freely.
Many people feel that geopolitics shouldn’t get in the way of business. That’s wishful thinking. BRICS could be a force for progress, but not when its agenda is dominated by efforts to fragment global consensus and appease those who willfully breach international law.