Stable demand for business jets combined with high backlogs at major OEMs and relatively low preowned inventory “should enable the industry to weather any potential economic downturns in the foreseeable future,” business jet financier Global Jet Capital (GJC) said in its third-quarter Business Aviation Market Brief. “Within the business jet industry, flight operations were down compared to 2022 (but higher than pre-Covid levels), inventory levels climbed but remained below historical averages, and transactions declined from recent high levels.”
Though the global economy has been resilient year-to-date, GJC warned about headwinds such as wars in Ukraine and Israel, tightened monetary policy, slowing growth, and lower consumer confidence. On the positive side, it noted higher-than-expected job creation in the U.S., as well as strong retail spending and industrial production in China. Still, GJC believes a “mild and short-lived” recession is likely in the next 12 months.
According to the company, business aircraft flight operations fell 3 percent year-over-year in the third quarter but were 14 percent above third-quarter 2019 levels, “demonstrating sustained demand for business aviation.” It also noted book-to-bill ratios at business jet manufacturers remain above 1:1, “placing OEMs in a position to weather economic downturns.” GJC pointed out that preowned inventory, while climbing, is still below historical averages, with aircraft values holding up well despite a return to historical depreciation profiles.