The third quarter was one of stabilization for the business jet market with operations, orders, available aircraft, and pricing all ebbing but at the same time normalizing, according to Global Jet Capital’s latest Business Aviation Market Brief.
“Despite this shift, the market continues to show strength and resilience,” Global Jet Capital maintained, pointing to strong OEM backlogs, operations that remain above pre-pandemic levels, and still-low availability of newer and more desirable preowned aircraft.
In the third quarter, flight operations decreased by 1.3% year over year (YOY) but were 1% higher than the second quarter and still 14.6% above pre-pandemic third-quarter 2019. Global Jet Capital said this dynamic reflects “an enduring expansion in the user base for business aviation.” Fractional operations remain the strongest sector in terms of growth, expanding slightly in the third quarter.
OEM revenue was up by 15.3% YOY while backlogs remained high at $45.6 billion—just a 1.1% dip YOY. Orders in the quarter declined YOY but were still up 20.4% from 2019.
Preowned transactions remained stable as more aircraft came on the market. New preowned public listings were up 13.3% YOY. Aircraft 13 years and older represented 69.6% of the new listings at the end of the quarter. Aircraft available for sale represented 7.8% of the total fleet as of October 31—still below the 10% average of the last decade.
“As inventory increased, the market shifted from a seller’s market to a more neutral state,” Global Jet Capital said. Values for older aircraft (13+ years) decreased by 4.4% but increased by 0.8% for newer aircraft.
Further, market conditions remain favorable, the aircraft financier said, with stable GDP growth of 2.7% during the first three quarters of the year and declining inflation, despite ongoing headwinds. Central banks are lowering interest rates, Global Jet Capital said. “Overall, the industry is well-prepared to handle any potential market disruptions.”
As for the headwinds, geopolitical conflicts continue, including in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. While easing, interest rates remain high and the potential for continued de-globalization and trade conflicts can continue those headwinds.