Jefferies: Potential Chinese Bans on Bizjets Manageable

With aircraft deliveries being the latest battlefield in the trade war recently initiated against China, financial analyst Jefferies examined the possible effects on U.S. business aircraft manufacturers.

According to published reports, China has ordered its airlines to stop accepting further orders of Boeing airplanes in response to the U.S. government's imposed tariffs. The Chinese government has also reportedly demanded a halt of purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies.

Jefferies examined the backlogs of Gulfstream and Textron Aviation based on data from Cirium and determined their exposure in China. Since 2015, the country has accounted for 7% of Gulfstream deliveries and 3% of those from Textron Aviation.

Textron Aviation lists 10 single-engine turboprop Caravans to China in its backlog, but no pending business jet deliveries, while Gulfstream does not have any disclosed business jet deliveries to China, per the Cirium data. Historically, China would account for 4% of the General Dynamics subsidiary’s backlog, increasing to as much as 7% if the “unknown” deliveries are included.

Last year, business jet departures in China accounted for just 1% of the world’s total across all business jet types. Jefferies noted that “this implies that any services or parts sales to China would also be in the range that is manageable with other demand.”

For 2025, the analyst predicts a 13% increase in business jet deliveries from the five major OEMs.