Used Jets: Vibrant Seller’s Market with Enduring Demand

The new and young preowned business jet market remains very tight in terms of availability, according to data analyst and industry veteran Rolland Vincent of Rolland Vincent Associates. He moderated a panel discussion on the subject at NBAA’s White Plains Regional Forum this week at Westchester County Airport (KHPN) in New York.

Addressing the backlogs from the major OEMs, he noted, “If you’re a manufacturer in this industry, you’re sitting on two or three years of work, which is a good place to be if you’re them.” He added that the five major business jet makers (Bombardier, Dassault, Embraer, Gulfstream, and Textron) are approaching a backlog worth nearly $63 billion. “I think we’ll see a few manufacturers, at least two, go to 200 unit [deliveries] a year here pretty shortly.”

Despite those huge backlogs, Edward Kilkeary III, managing partner at Avpro, applauded the airframers’ measured approach to their production rates. “With the changes that they’ve made from a process perspective, where they’re controlling production, they’re managing pricing better, and frankly, it’s making what was historically a depreciating asset a less depreciating asset,” he stated. “So, I think our clients certainly enjoy that.”

However, for a customer looking to acquire a new aircraft, that presents immediate concerns. “The average lead time is at a minimum of a year and a half; some are two, three, and even four,” said Josh Mesinger, v-p of Colorado-based aircraft broker Mesinger Jet Sales. “The [Bombardier] Challenger 3500 is out to 2030.”

While the airframers have maintained production discipline, those extended delivery times have caused inventory in the preowned market, particularly among young used aircraft, to tighten considerably in what Vincent describes as a “vibrant seller’s market with enduring demand.”

To demonstrate, he used data showing the on-market availability of three current models, in three different market segments: the Embraer Phenom 300E, the Challenger 350, and the Gulfstream G650ER. “These are three very popular airplanes,” he told the audience, explaining that each has approximately 400 aircraft in its fleet. “If I want [one] that’s N-registered, U.S.-based, and delivered in the last five years or so, the numbers are essentially zero.”

While the inventory overall has increased somewhat from post-Covid 2022, when the availability of private jets plunged to 3% of the existing fleet, large ultra-long-range jet inventory is currently the lowest at 3.6%, followed by super-midsize at 5.1%.

Mesinger explained that in a market with such limited availability, it takes a village to satisfy his clients. As such, he benefits from being part of a small but friendly industry and will regularly discuss client needs with his peers for any leads on soon-to-market aircraft. “We’ve got great relationships with our peers,” he said. “We’re out looking under every bush and making every phone call.”

And when a suitable aircraft with the proper pedigree comes around at an acceptable price, Mesinger advises his clients to be ready to strike. “When you are actively in the market today, everything has to be prepared to move quickly, and everything set up: have the right team, have the right counsel, have your letter of intent prepared, know what you’re getting into.”

Given the dearth of preowned inventory, those who need immediate lift must find other options, according to Kilkeary. “I think that’s why we’re seeing so much demand in the charter space, the supplemental lift, the fractional leases, things of that nature, that are filling that void while people are waiting these exceptional lead times.”

In terms of clientele, both brokers noted younger demographics. “I’d say wealth is certainly shifting hands,” Kilkeary explained. “It’s getting younger, it’s getting more efficient, and I think, as a byproduct, this next generation of ownership values the proposition that the airplane presents.”

With the industry facing increasing fuel prices as a result of the war with Iran, Mesinger noted some early effects on the market. “I think it’s very likely it’s probably starting to affect corporate [travel], but overall, it’s not affecting demand for aircraft of any size that I deal with daily.”

In the industry crash following the global economic downturn in 2008, airframers were left with scores of white tails from cancelled orders. Kilkeary noted that things are different now for those with aircraft on order who might get cold feet going forward.

“A real differentiator is that the OEMs are taking significant deposits,” he explained. “[In 2008], people were happy to walk away from it and dump the aircraft back on the manufacturers, but today you’re talking about in some cases as much as 20% of the asset value in liquidated damages.”

Both brokers agreed that while artificial intelligence could make a useful tool, it will never supplant humans. “I don’t believe [AI will be able] to ever accurately value aircraft, to ever really replace our research departments and research members of our teams,” said Mesinger. “It takes relationships.”