Supply-chain Woes Persist, but Critical Delays Ebbing

While supply-chain issues are improving, they persist, forcing manufacturers to balance lengthy backlogs with the ability to scale up, according to analysts speaking during a recent JetNet webinar on the state of the business aviation industry. Kevin Schwab, strategic planning manager at Honeywell Aerospace, pointed to the “big hole” in aircraft output during Covid when it was “really hard to get almost everything.”

But beginning in 2025 and into 2026, OEMs began to dramatically reduce delayed critical parts, he added. Throughout Covid, Schwab said, “there may be a few hundred critical parts, and now we’re down to single-digit critical parts that could potentially be holding up production. What that has done is that it has increased throughput.”

Business aircraft deliveries were up about 6% last year, while the indications are that output will further increase in the “high single digits or maybe even low double digits” this year. But even as the critical parts issues are winnowing down, “You have to tackle every single problem as it goes because you can’t build the whole airplane unless you have every single part there,” Schwab continued. “So really the focus for us on the supply side has been targeting the most critical parts and just whittling that list down to a point where we have been able to increase output and increase capacity. Frankly, in business aviation, this is needed.”

He pointed to strong demand, noting that this is a balance because suppliers do not want to oversize all operations with an overoptimistic view. “We’ve seen that go south in the past, but I would say that right now, while supply chains are improving, they’re not where they need to be.” At the same time, suppliers must meet the demand because four-year-long backlogs can become untenable.

AeroDynamic Advisory managing director Richard Aboulafia agreed with Schwab: “It’s the old joke: How many parts does it take to build a plane? All of them. There are just still so many stressed areas.”

Noting that his colleagues liken the supply chain to a game of Whac-a-Mole, he added that it could be titanium castings and forgings or semiconductors or interiors at a given moment.

Asked whether wait times stretching into 2029 for aircraft such as Gulfstreams indicate headwinds or risk, Aboulafia said, “Thankfully, this time around, we don’t have anyone desperate for cash. We have a really healthy industry. I’m feeling pretty optimistic about how things are going.”

The webinar also delved into a slowing of transactions on the preowned side. Bill Ostrove, manager of market intelligence and analysis for Global Jet Capital, pointed to two factors driving that. 

One is a little delay in FAA reporting, giving the appearance of fewer transactions. The second is a surge of transactions that occurred in the first half of 2025 in the face of potential tariffs taking effect. “We saw a really big influx of preowned activity in Q1 2025. That creates sort of an unfavorable comparison in Q1 of 2026, and lo and behold we did see a decline in activity in Q1,” Ostrove said. That began to moderate by the second quarter of this year, he added, and as the year moves on, Global Jet Capital believes it will see a more normal comparison.

Ostrove agreed that fewer newer aircraft are on the market and the ones that are sell faster. As for older aircraft, “We’re seeing more of them put on the market to begin with and then once they are on the market, they’re sitting for longer.” But overall, the industry has been stable.

Pointing to the development poured into the heavy jet segment, Schwab noted that many are now coming to market. “That’s why you’re seeing a lot of really strong demand for those.” The wait can be long for a Gulfstream G700, but that makes the G650s even more attractive. “The first owners of those aircraft are putting them up on the market, which is providing some pretty good options in the preowned space for some really nice upgrades.”

While the fractional market has become a leading growth segment, “there’s also really strong demand for those aircraft from private operators as well.” This is especially true in midsize classes such as the Cessna Citation Latitude or Embraer Praetor 500, he said. “You’ve got some really good options for upgrading your aircraft but not necessarily scaling up your direct operating costs along with that.”