McKinsey Report Sees Shifting Bizav Market, Capacity Hurdles

The business aviation market “truly came of age” six years ago during the Covid pandemic but faces increasing pressures around aircraft supply, maintenance, and crews, according to McKinsey & Company. 

Releasing its inaugural report on the market in concert with NBAA-BACE last week, McKinsey found the market resilient as demand for private aviation services continues to grow. At the same time, the global management advisory firm warned of strained supply chains and infrastructure as a result and added that the market leaders will be the ones that respond to these challenges quickly.

“The defining question is no longer who can provide an aircraft, but who can secure and coordinate the capacity around it, from delivery slots, crews, hangars, and maintenance to a seamless passenger experience,” the firm stated.

While recognizing that private aviation has been around for more than six decades, McKinsey believes the Covid pandemic propelled the market in an unprecedented fashion. During Covid, commercial airline traffic took nearly four years to reach pre-pandemic levels; business aircraft flight hours reached that level by the next year.

That return wasn’t a temporary rebound but the start of sustained growth. Business aircraft departures have increased 4.9% annually since 2019 and reached a record 3.9 million last year. North America accounted for 70% of global business flight hours in 2025, but all regions have experienced flight growth. Latin America and Asia-Pacific have gained the largest percentage.

The increasing global population of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs, those with a net worth of more than $30 million) is a driver of this growth. The number of UHNWIs increased by 5.6% annually from 2019 to 2025, almost double the rate of global GDP growth. Another factor is curbed routes in commercial aviation. Shorter routes dipped by 4.4% over the last six years, with Europe and Asia leading those declines. Private aviation is absorbing demand for that diminished service.

In addition, private aviation demand has shifted from corporate centers toward leisure/second-home destinations. As such, business jet departures dipped at Chicago Midway, Oakland San Francisco Bay, and Van Nuys (Los Angeles), but have increased at Florida airports such as Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International, Miami International, and Witham Field, according to McKinsey. Other locations in Rifle, Colorado; Jackson Hole, Wyoming; and Bozeman, Montana have also seen increases.

At the same time, private aircraft fleets are growing at both ends of the spectrum: the very-light-jet fleet has grown by 6.7% a year since 2019, while the long-range-jet fleet has grown by 5.1% a year. Over the longer term, long-range jets have grown from 432 in 2000 to 4,448 in 2025. However, buyers aren’t necessarily looking for that range, but rather for other attributes of that category. About 65% of U.S. ultra-long-range jet flights last year were less than 1,000 nm.

Demand is also shifting toward flexible ownership/usage models, with fractional operations growing fastest. Aircraft management has remained steady, with related flight hours accounting for 25% of business aviation activity since 2019. Also, still among the largest segments, corporate and private fleets have grown at a 2% annual rate over the past decade, the slowest of all the ownership models. As a result, their share of flight hours has decreased by 6 percentage points since 2019.

The charter market has also evolved. McKinsey noted that 20 years ago, only one charter operator had a fleet of more than 50 aircraft. Fractional aircraft have increased from 990 (4.5% of the global fleet) in 2019 to 1,510 (6.1%) in 2025, a 7.3% annual increase. Meanwhile, the share of fractional flight hours jumped from 14% to 20%, with NetJets and Flexjet accounting for 92% of them.

As the models shift, the average business aircraft is flying about 19% more annually than pre-Covid. With the increased hours and flexible models, private aviation may be within the reach of more customers, McKinsey stated. 

“Yet the industry may be running out of the spare capacity it once took for granted,” the firm cautioned, pointing to limited aircraft supply, growing infrastructure constraints, and the difficulty of scaling within the industry. New business jet deliveries are still just 65% of the peak of 1,290 in 2008, and supply-chain difficulties are hampering scale in production. Instead, the fleet is growing, largely through aircraft not retiring.

According to McKinsey, the fleet increased by 730 aircraft in 2025, up from 500 in 2019. Retirements fell to 100 from 300 at the same time. The older fleet is requiring more maintenance, increasing maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) demand. Hangar and ramp constraints are also a factor.

With shortages from maintenance to delivery slots, aircraft owners are increasingly looking at fractional shares and jet cards, or at mixed models. Along with this, private aviation businesses are consolidating to create capacity, not only in operations but in other providers, such as FBOs and MRO shops.

With increasing demand, business aviation service providers must plan for years ahead and balance multiple demand futures. In addition, these providers must understand the younger, more digital, and more geographically spread nature of the clientele, as well as the opportunities AI presents and the idea that cabin connectivity is an essential rather than a nice-to-have amenity.

These businesses must learn to drive economies of scale—those that don’t face a competitiveness gap, McKinsey said. OEMs, meanwhile, should emphasize production increases, even as they deal with supply-chain issues. And operators must continue to adapt as the customer base evolves.