During one of the pre-Covid Singapore Air Shows a few years ago, the representative of one of the largest U.S. defense firms directly addressed the effects of the rise of Chinese military power on his business in the Asia-Pacific region.
“The Chinese are my best sales agents,” he said. “Every time they make some high-profile move, that is when the phone starts ringing from countries that then ask, ‘what is the price and delivery timeline for that weapon system we were speaking with you about last month?’ The technological advancement across the board in PRC weaponry—matched by a parallel increase in expansionist behavior—is creating a palpable sense of anxiety with many nations in this part of the world.”
Actions by the PRC’s armed forces—both the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)—have indeed set off alarm bells within the MODs in the region, he added, notably their entry into the “club” of nations with aircraft carriers.
“Every time they steam that [CV-16] carrier out of port and coverage of it is broadcast all over CNA and other news outlets, that is when you really start to see an immediate reaction from countries that are frightened by the PRC’s new military capabilities and/or do not trust the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),” he explained.
The PLAN acquired its first carrier more than two decades ago from Ukraine. The vessel—then known as the Varyag—had sat idle and unfinished at the Nikolayev shipyards since the waning days of the Cold War and became the property of the newly independent nation with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ukraine had no plans for and no capability to commission a blue-water navy and the Chinese wanted to acquire a carrier, so it sold the ship in 1998 under the false pretense that it would become a floating hotel and casino complex in the former Portuguese colony of Macau.
The unpowered ship was instead towed to the PRC proper and re-fitted at the Dalian shipyards. More than a decade later, the Varyag conducted its first sea trials and eventually was renamed the Liaoning with the hull number CV-16.
Aircraft Shortcomings
The lack of a suitable aircraft to operate from the carrier deck remained one element lacking in the PRC’s naval aviation ambitions. The Liaoning features the same configuration as her sister ship, the Russian Navy’s (VMF) Admiral Kuznetsov, which facilitates takeoff from an up-angle ski ramp instead of using a catapult as do U.S., French, and Brazilian carriers. The answer for the PLAN was to reverse-engineer the VMF’s carrier fighter, the Sukhoi Su-33. The task fell to the same Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) that already builds copies of the Sukhoi Su-27SK models originally sold to the PLAAF in the 1990s.
The resulting aircraft, the Shenyang J-15, has flown from the CV-16 from the beginning, but that option comes with some significant shortcomings. The Su-33 is a 1980s design built from conventional metal alloys. Due to the increase in weight from copying the original Russian design, the J-15 became the heaviest carrier-based fighter in the world.
The excess weight of the Su-33 was one reason the VMF designated its Su-33 design as obsolete in 2015 and began to purchase carrier-capable variants of the Mikoyan MiG-29. The J-15, since it has no catapult to boost speed for the takeoff roll, can carry a full fuel load only if it limits the weapons loadout to only two tonnes of its total 12-tonne carriage capacity.
A PLA military source who spoke on condition of anonymity complained the J-15 weighs so much that, “even the U.S. Navy’s current generation C13-2 steam catapult launch engines that are installed on Nimitz-class aircraft carriers would struggle to launch the aircraft efficiently.”
New Age Design
Those realities prompted the PLAN to commission SAC more than a decade ago to develop a new-generation, lightweight fighter aircraft that would have both a low radar cross-section and an internal weapons bay. It also intended the structure to be constructed partially of non-ferrous materials and powered by two engines in the class of the U.S. GE F414.
The result—a stage-one prototype carrying several initial designations (F-60/J-31/FC-31)—first flew in 2011 and made its international debut in 2014 at Air Show China in Zhuhai. The performance of the aircraft hinged on two of the same Russian-made Klimov RD-93 jet engines (a derivative of the MiG-29’s RD-33 powerplant) installed in the single-engine Chengdu FC-1/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17.
Three years later, a revised version of the aircraft appeared that weighed more than the original prototype but featured a re-designed wing, which increased the weight of the airframe. At the same time, the PRC’s struggling aero-engine sector promised a higher-thrust version of the Guizhou Liyang Aeroengine Company WS-13 engine, a design based on the Russian RD-33/93.
Chinese news sources reported in 2020 that the company had developed an IPE (increased performance version of the WS-13). The increased thrust of the engine reportedly came from the adoption of what some have described as “a relatively conservative scheme” that retains the original design's four-stage fan. However, the fan blades sweep forward to delay airflow separation, thereby increasing the fan’s rotation rate and boosting the thrust rating. While the original WS-13 had a thrust capacity of less than 9 tonnes, the IPE version performs well beyond the 9-tonne mark
In the meantime, SAC has turned out a third iteration of the design, now commonly referred to as J-35, which reportedly first flew in October 2021. According to sources within Chinese industry who spoke with AIN, the flight test validation of this J-35 prototype will take another two years and then another year to finalize the design. That would make the aircraft ready for carrier trials in 2025, the projected date for the first of the PLAN’s catapult-equipped Type 003 carriers.
Chinese Ambitions
One of the most experienced analysts of the PRC’s military power is retired U.S. Navy Captain James Fanell, who served tours as the chief intelligence officer for the PRC at both the U.S. Pacific Fleet and the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) in Washington. When questioned about the significance of the PLAN acquiring more and better carriers and new-generation aircraft to operate from them, he noted that the moves don’t surprise those who have watched the PRC for many years.
“We are seeing the goals of [now retired] Admiral Wu Shengli coming to fruition as the PLAN continues its transformation into the most powerful navy on the planet,” said Fanell, who now resides in Switzerland and is a resident expert at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.
“As the [chief] from 2006 to 2017, Wu was the second-longest serving commander of the PLAN,” Fanell noted. “What we are seeing today is the result of Admiral Wu laying the foundation for the PLAN to be a naval aviation power. It was one of his priorities as commander and it remains as such with the current civilian and military leaders of China.”