Market research specialist Berg Insight sees electric aircraft, including eVTOL vehicles, gaining traction more slowly than many advanced air mobility (AAM) pioneers have projected. Still, it expects them to be a major part of the air transportation industry by the 2030s. In a new report, the Swedish company predicts a “high value rather than high volume” start for the sector.
While acknowledging that a few piloted eVTOL aircraft will enter service by the end of this decade, Berg Insight analyst Henrik Littorin feels it will be between 2031 and 2035 before the ecosystem for advanced air mobility is in place to support larger-scale operations and public acceptance of the aircraft takes root. During this period, he predicts, as many as 20,000 vehicles will be delivered globally.
Beyond that, Berg Insight sees an acceleration in the scaling up of the AAM market with 60,000 deliveries of electric aircraft between 2036 and 2050. “In our most positive scenario, we have come to the conclusion that deliveries could reach up to 150,000 vehicles between 2025 and 2050,” Littorin commented. “This scenario is based on a favorable regulatory environment where the long-term airspace management has been solved as well as the approval of autonomous flights.”
In addition to commercial airline and air taxi applications for the new aircraft, Berg Insight sees potential for private individuals to buy eVTOL vehicles. The report forecasts 300,000 vehicles, most of which will be two-seaters, being delivered to self-flying owners between 2025 and 2050.
Due to what it sees as a complex regulatory landscape and early limitations of ground infrastructure, such as recharging facilities, Berg Insight expects that no more than a few hundred electric aircraft will enter service before 2030. The Gothenberg-based company expects battery-electric aircraft to have the capacity for between six and 19 seats, with hydrogen propulsion being required in the 19- to 90-seat category.
The report also addresses what the consultant views as a critical requirement for the new aircraft to have access to advanced connectivity technology. In this regard, it believes the new L-band Digital Aeronautical Communications System will be a key enabler, with satellite-based communications as complementary platforms.