FutureFlight

Making predictions and rankings in almost any aspect of human endeavor is not necessarily an assured path to winning friends, but it certainly can be a way to influence people. As the maddeningly unpredictable year of 2020 drew to a close, SMG Consulting demonstrated the fortitude to attempt both with the unveiling of its new Advanced Air Mobility Reality Index (ARI) and its Top Five Predictions list for the industry in 2021.

Baykar Technologies’ plans to develop its Cezeri personal air vehicle (PAV) may be getting a boost from the Turkish industrial group’s growing defense sales. The privately-owned group has extensive experience developing military drones, as well as command, control, communication, computer, and intelligence systems and payload hardware.

Some observers would liken the nascent advanced air mobility sector to a gold rush or even a horse race. There was a time before the Covid-19 pandemic threw a spanner into the global economy that it seemed more like a stampede.

As a venture capital group with an appetite to invest in start-ups in the drone and air mobility sectors, Levitate Capital did not give much credence to available market research and so in mid-2020 it set about conducting its own investigation. The result of this effort is a new white paper published on December 21: The Future of the Drone Economy: a comprehensive analysis of the economic potential, market opportunities, and strategic considerations in the drone economy.

How are cities supposed to determine whether or not, and how, they might embrace urban air mobility (UAM) if they’ve had no direct experience of the new-generation eVTOL aircraft that will support these plans? This is a knowledge gap that AV Living Lab is seeking to fill with its Arch UAM Global Challenge, giving cities the opportunity to participate in its UAM CityLab programs, which use a UAM flight simulation hub to show people what this new mode of transportation will entail.

The Indian government has issued a discussion paper on its plans for a “national unmanned aircraft traffic management policy.” The document, issued by the country’s Ministry of Civil Aviation, makes scant reference to plans for passenger-carrying autonomous operations but does appear to lay some groundwork for how the vast country might approach the adoption of advanced air mobility. It lays out some initial thinking on possible architecture, as well as concept-of-operations and deployment plans to establish the required ecosystem.

Ahead of next week’s Rotorcraft and VTOL Webinar, the European Aviation Safety Agency is inviting comments and questions on presentations that will include the current status of means of compliance proposals to support the long-anticipated special conditions for certifying new VTOL aircraft. The December 9 event will be held online and registered participants can already view a series of video presentations to preview the planned discussion.

Uber Elevate has published a white paper updating its perspective on urban air mobility, advanced air mobility, or whatever term it is we’re supposed to use to describe how new aircraft can transform the way people and things get moved from one place to another. “Uber Air: Designing for the Community” is a long-awaited update on the ride-hailing group’s plans.

Public acceptance is widely regarded as a key factor­–some might say obstacle­–in plans to launch and expand advanced air mobility (AAM) operations, and especially in more densely populated urban areas. Most eVTOL aircraft pioneers accept that they can’t take it for granted that their new technology and business models will be accepted with open arms.

The numbers are still mouthwatering, and it’s little wonder that so many people want a seat at the table for the anticipated urban air mobility feast. The transport consultant firm of Roland Berger has just provided a fresh taste of what could be served up by the sector in its latest report, predicting that 160,000 of what it calls “commercial passenger drones” will be in the air by 2050. The Europe-based group values the market at $90 billion in a paper entitled "The High-Flying Industry: Urban Air Mobility Takes Off."