FutureFlight

An intriguing report issued this week from German airline group Lufthansa poses the question: Are air taxis ready for prime time? Given the company’s semi-detached perspective on a new transportation sector that stands to complement, and to some degree supplant, conventional air transportation, its assessment is refreshingly candid and analytical. It cannot be accused of being a vector for the intoxicating hype engulfing this sector.

A joint study from Deloitte and the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) predicts that the U.S. advanced air mobility (AAM) market, which includes flying taxis and cargo drones, will generate sales of $115 billion annually by 2035—equivalent to 0.5 percent of U.S. GDP. This emerging industry is also expected to create more than 280,000 “high paying” jobs in the same time frame, accounting for approximately 8 percent of the aerospace and defense workforce, the new report adds.

The prospect of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) leading the next wave of investment in the cash-hungry advanced air mobility (AAM) sector gained momentum this week when New Vista Acquisition Corp. filed an S-1 initial public offering (IPO) registration form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company is offering 20 million shares at $10 apiece in a bid to raise $200 million with which to acquire one or more companies in the aviation, aerospace, and defense industries.

The UK’s government-backed Future Flight Challenge program has issued a sweeping endorsement of plans to introduce electric-powered and autonomously operated aircraft, based on new research that suggests these technologies will reduce transportation costs by almost half and reduce journey times significantly. A study published this week on the socio-economic impact of advanced air mobility, which has been conducted by the PwC consulting group, also argues that these new modes of air transport will improve worker safety.

Making predictions and rankings in almost any aspect of human endeavor is not necessarily an assured path to winning friends, but it certainly can be a way to influence people. As the maddeningly unpredictable year of 2020 drew to a close, SMG Consulting demonstrated the fortitude to attempt both with the unveiling of its new Advanced Air Mobility Reality Index (ARI) and its Top Five Predictions list for the industry in 2021.

Baykar Technologies’ plans to develop its Cezeri personal air vehicle (PAV) may be getting a boost from the Turkish industrial group’s growing defense sales. The privately-owned group has extensive experience developing military drones, as well as command, control, communication, computer, and intelligence systems and payload hardware.

Some observers would liken the nascent advanced air mobility sector to a gold rush or even a horse race. There was a time before the Covid-19 pandemic threw a spanner into the global economy that it seemed more like a stampede.

As a venture capital group with an appetite to invest in start-ups in the drone and air mobility sectors, Levitate Capital did not give much credence to available market research and so in mid-2020 it set about conducting its own investigation. The result of this effort is a new white paper published on December 21: The Future of the Drone Economy: a comprehensive analysis of the economic potential, market opportunities, and strategic considerations in the drone economy.

How are cities supposed to determine whether or not, and how, they might embrace urban air mobility (UAM) if they’ve had no direct experience of the new-generation eVTOL aircraft that will support these plans? This is a knowledge gap that AV Living Lab is seeking to fill with its Arch UAM Global Challenge, giving cities the opportunity to participate in its UAM CityLab programs, which use a UAM flight simulation hub to show people what this new mode of transportation will entail.

The Indian government has issued a discussion paper on its plans for a “national unmanned aircraft traffic management policy.” The document, issued by the country’s Ministry of Civil Aviation, makes scant reference to plans for passenger-carrying autonomous operations but does appear to lay some groundwork for how the vast country might approach the adoption of advanced air mobility. It lays out some initial thinking on possible architecture, as well as concept-of-operations and deployment plans to establish the required ecosystem.