Story ID: 165HoneywellForecast2016
Honeywell Downgrades Helicopter Delivery Outlook
By: Chad Trautvetter
Caption: Survey indicated that Latin America led all global regions in the rate of new aircraft purchase plans, despite an economic slowdown in Brazil.
Word Count: 600
Honeywell (Booth 4945) is taking a more cautious tone in its latest turbine-powered civil helicopter purchase outlook, which calls for 4,300 to 4,800 civil helicopters to be delivered from this year to 2020. This is some 400 helicopters fewer than in the company’s previous five-year forecast released 12 months ago, thanks to slower global economic growth and increased volatility in oil-and-gas-related markets.

“The current global economic situation is causing fleet managers to evaluate new helicopter purchases closely, and that’s why we’re seeing a more cautious five-year demand projection compared with previous years,” said Honeywell Aerospace defense and space president Carey Smith. Notably, the survey found that new helicopter purchase-plan rates in India and Brazil exceed the world average by a “wide margin.”

While the survey showed new purchase-plan rates were stable, operators cited fewer total new model purchases over the five-year period. Make and model choices for new purchase decisions are most strongly influenced by range, cabin size, performance, technology upgrades and brand experience, according to the survey. By cabin size, light turbines are expected to account for 54 percent of deliveries over the forecast period; light twins, 11 percent; medium twins, 28 percent; and heavy, 7 percent.

Global Demand

Looking at world regions, the survey indicated that Latin America leads all global regions in the rate of new aircraft purchase plans, despite an economic slowdown in Brazil. Respondents in the region expressed strong fleet replacement and growth expectations that were well above the world average, with 36 percent saying they plan to purchase a replacement or additional helicopter. This is up 8 percentage points from last year’s survey, Honeywell said.

In terms of projected regional demand for new helicopters, Latin America is now the second-highest hottest market, trailing only North America. Operators in this region favor light single helicopters (about 50 percent) and light twins (about 35 percent), with the balance being intermediate and medium twins.

The Middle East and Africa has the second-highest new purchase rate among the regions in the survey, with up to 30 percent of respondents saying they are going to replace their helicopter(s) or add more. More than 60 percent of planned new helicopter purchases are intermediate and medium twin-engine models, according to Honeywell.

In North America, purchase expectations fell two percentage points, to 15 percent, but still provide a “strong base of demand” for light single-engine (more than 60 percent) and intermediate or medium twins (nearly 25 percent). Still, “North American purchase plans are a significant component of the overall 2016 survey demand and help support global industry demand projections by virtue of the large fleet active in the region,” Honeywell said.

European purchase plans decreased slightly, to 25 percent, with continued weakness in reported Russian buying plans. However, the sample of Russian operators responding to the survey was small, adding “some uncertainty” to the overall European results, the company noted. This region tends to favor light twins and light singles.

Purchase plans in Asia Pacific were 16 percent, down 4 percentage points from last year’s survey. This is due to a gloomier outlook in China, where the economy is slowing and an anti-luxury backlash has emerged due to the government’s crackdown on corruption.

Charles Parks, Honeywell’s director of market analysis and author of the survey, told AIN that he is cautiously optimistic about helicopter purchase prospects in Iran, now that an international nuclear agreement is in force and sanctions are being lifted. However, the company did not survey any Iranian operators, so it does not have any concrete data to forecast demand in this country.