Story ID: 525
Hope, Ambiguity On Display in Paris
By: Cathy Buyck
Caption: The 737 Max saga will dominate the discourse, but the air show invariably presents surprises.
Word Count: 751
This year’s slowdown in order activity and concerns over trade tensions haven’t dampened expectations of vigorous air transport growth far into the future. But whether or not the Paris Air Show this week reflects the short-term trends or the optimistic view of most industry executives would prefer to espouse remained a big question as Monday approached.

The continuing saga of the 737 Max will dominate the discourse, as Boeing focuses its attention less on the usual airshow hoopla and more on the business of meeting with customers and restoring some of its bruised credibility. Meanwhile, the world’s two largest OEMs hope to reverse this year’s negative net order performances—Airbus’s books this year reflect a negative order count of 125 and Boeing’s a negative 84.

While Boeing’s misfortune could give its European rival an opening for dominating order activity in the narrowbody realm at least, Airbus executives on Friday repeated earlier statements that the Max crisis has not changed the OEM’s commercial behavior. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury admitted the model’s fatal accidents and global grounding by regulators has caused “nervousness” throughout the sector, advocating for the Max’s quick return to service in the interest of the industry as a whole.

In terms of product developments, expectations that Boeing will fly the first 777X soon after the show abound, and speculation persists about Airbus’s launch of its proposed A321XLR this week. While Airbus chief commercial officer Christian Scherer remained tight-lipped about the potential launch of what would become the industry’s longest-range narrowbody, he also hinted that the company might soon release “a little more” information.

Meanwhile, the project doesn’t seem to lack interest from prospective launch customers, including JetBlue Airways and the new airline under development by that airline’s co-founder, David Neeleman. Analysts point to American Airlines’ interest in 34 A321XLRs as a replacement for the same number of Boeing 757s, while India’s IndiGo sees a case for the expected 4,500-nm-range jet to fill a vacuum left by defunct Jet Airways.

Analyst Views

Analysts’ forecasts on potential show orders certainly diverge. Jefferies Group is the most buoyant and puts the potential upcoming order count at some 1,452 aircraft—including 394 widebodies and 1,058 narrowbodies—totaling $237 billion at list prices. China accounts for about 30 percent of the potential order pipeline or close to $70 billion in value, including a mega deal for 100 Boeing 787s and/or 777Xs reportedly under negotiation with China Airlines. The other major Chinese order opportunity rests with CALC, which is weighing Airbus and Boeing options for a 200-aircraft order split 80/20 between narrowbodies and widebodies.

IBA expressed a far more tempered outlook, with chief operating officer Stuart Hatcher predicting that firm orders and MoUs could total as low as 440. He puts the number of possible letters of intent at just 255. Although the narrowbody market appears likely to see more activity than widebodies, its performance this year will prove muted compared with previous air shows, according to Hatcher. He expects Airbus to clinch the bulk of the narrowbody firm orders and MoUs, including some 200 A320neo family aircraft and 40 A220-300s.

“Clearly the 737 Max grounding is going to impact sales, but we wouldn’t be surprised to witness a top-up order, in addition to further details being announced on the re-entry into service for the type,” he wrote. He sees Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, Ryanair, placing a potential 737 Max top-up order.

Morgan Stanley also expects a rather muted order stream. Its analysts place the 2019 commitments at around 500 units, or 50 percent lower than the five-year average.

Most analysts, however, do believe that Boeing most likely will not launch its new midsize airplane (NMA) at this year’s show.

“There has been plenty of speculation that Boeing could launch the NMA this year. However, we feel that given Boeing’s preoccupation with sorting the 737 Max issue, this may be pushed back to at least a point when the re-entry is well underway,” IBA’s Hatcher wrote. Likewise, Morgan Stanley said it believes the NMA will stay on the “backburner.”

Finally, despite slow order activity this year, backlogs remain strong. “We cannot lose sight of the fact that the total backlog for the two largest OEMs still sits at 12,865 units, while ATR, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi and Sukhoi hold onto 1,878 orders in the pipeline,” concluded IBA.