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In the Works: Crystal Ball 2015
By: Matt Thurber
Caption: Big jets dominated unveilings last year.
Word Count: 744
Dassault and Gulfstream stepped up with new aircraft programs last year, but it was slim pickings for other credible projects making their debut on air In The Works log in 2014.	The moves by the three OEMs show that large-cabin aircraft remain the dominant category. In Dassault’s case, it has added the 8X to the Falcon line. The $58 million 8X is a longer version of the 7X with about 500 nm added range. Gulfstream is replacing the G450/550 with the G500 and G600, both of which share the same cabin cross-section and large passenger windows as the G650.

While Bombardier hasn’t indicated its plans for the Learjet 85, which made its maiden flight last April, it has realigned resources to focus on keeping the larger Global 7000 and 8000 programs on schedule. The company has released little new information on the Learjet 85, which is the first all-composite Part 25 business jet, but the program appears to be in some kind of holding pattern. The Learjet 85 did make a public debut at last year’s NBAA show, but since then, Bombardier has not indicated that there is much recent activity on that project. Bombardier also took the wraps off the Challenger 650, a revamp of the 605.

Other manufacturers are focusing on bringing their new projects to the market, including Embraer, on the home stretch with the Legacy 450 (the 500 has entered service). Cessna is on track with its newest programs, the Latitude and Longitude. The Latitude made its public debut at the NBAA show, equipped with a production interior.
Turboprops Stall
With Cessna parent Textron buying Beechcraft earlier this year and combining Cessna and Beechcraft under the new Textron Aviation brand, the question now is whether this means fewer new products or new life for both brands. Beechcraft dominates the twin-turboprop sector, but one nut that this company hasn’t cracked yet is the single-engine turboprop. The company’s leadership broached the idea of a single-engine turboprop before going bankrupt, so it will be up to Textron Aviation’s leadership to pursue this market. Stiff competition from Daher-Socata’s improved TBM900 and the popular Pilatus PC-12 means that Textron Aviation has a high bar to hurdle. But it also means that there is a clear pathway to a successful product: an airplane that outperforms the TBM900 and PC-12.

For the most part, the turboprop market has seen little development during the past year, other than upgrades to existing models. Caiga is still developing the Primus 150 single-engine turboprop, which is powered by a GE H85 engine.

Meanwhile, Epic Aircraft is planning to certify its speedy E1000 single-engine turboprop this year. Kestrel’s K-350 competes in a similar performance regime as the E1000, but while engineering work is mostly complete, the company is seeking additional funding to bring the K-350 to market.

At either end of the jet spectrum sit the single-engine jets and supersonic business jets. Cirrus is one of the last companies standing in the single-engine personal jet category, and the company’s Chinese owners seem intent on providing the funding to see the product through to certification. A second conforming Cirrus Vision jet joined the flight test program in November, and one more is planned before deliveries begin in the fourth quarter this year.

Flaris is still intent on fielding its small LAR-01 single-engine jet, although that program has run into delays.

On the supersonic business jet front, there is a new development, a committment by Airbus to the Aerion AS2 program. The companies have formed an alliance, and plans call for the AS2 to fly in the third quarter of 2019, receive FAA certification in the third quarter of 2021 and enter service in the second quarter of 2022. Airbus’s Defense and Space division is supporting Aerion in the task of specifying and sourcing airframe structures, avionics and other equipment during the design phase.

The light jet market has life.Cessna’s M2 received FAA certification in December 2013. For Honda Aircraft all the stars are aligned, and the first airplane to achieve FAA certification this year should be the HondaJet.

The Aeronimbus NMX joins the On The Shelf group this year; there is no response to requests for information from the Singapore-based company.

Two turboprops from Mahindra Aerospace’s GippsAero division in Australia are expected to enter service this year, the single-engine Airvan 10 and the twin-engine Airvan 18.