Story ID: 394
JetNet: Big Backlogs Providing Bullish Outlook
By: Kerry Lynch
Caption: Backlogs are holding above $50 billion, while deliveries will be up 13% this year
Word Count: 609
Business jet backlogs have reached at least a 16-year high, with the top five producers combining for more than $51 billion in the first quarter, according to the latest data from industry analyst JetNet. During its State of the Market Briefing on Monday at EBACE in Geneva, Rollie Vincent, president of Rolland Vincent Associates and JetNet iQ creator/director, noted that business jet deliveries are expected to scale up by 13% this year to 820 units, up from 729 in 2023. That is expected to grow in 2025 but at a slower rate, ticking up by 3% to 845.
Year-to-date, 186 jets have been handed over, led by the Cirrus Vision SF50 G2+ at 23, followed by the Phenom 300E at 18, Bombardier Challenger and Citation Latitude at 15 apiece, and Pilatus PC-24 at 13. Textron Aviation has topped the delivery board with 52 jets handed over, followed by Gulfstream, 34; Bombardier, 32; Embraer and Cirrus, 23 each; and Dassault, seven.
On the turboprop front, deliveries are expected to grow 9% to 425 aircraft this year, up from 389 in 2023, before settling back to 415 in 2025. The Pilatus PC-12 NGX remains a top seller thus far in 2024, accounting for 20 of the 82 turboprops delivered. The Daher Socata TBM 960 follows with 17 and the Caravan 208B EX at 16.
Overall, Vincent said, the industry is enjoying “good times,” and he pointed to the healthy backlogs that span two years for most of the OEMs. “We have backlogs that are holding, and that’s good news.”  Also encouraging, he added, is that despite the attention around fleet orders, the backlogs are supported by substantial single or double orders from a range of customers.
Book-to-bill has edged back up a bit as well, but he cautioned that deliveries tend to dip in the first quarter, which may tilt it higher.
The upbeat outlook comes as owner/operator sentiment in North America, which has been a strong market for new orders, has remained down since the third quarter. This sentiment may have lasted a little longer than expected—Vincent said this can be seasonal—but “if the mood picks up in the U.S., you could see demand continuation that will surprise us and that is going to keep us really busy.”
He added that JetNet expects to see a ramp in production and is watching for other signals before bending up that forecast long-term.
As for preowned aircraft, available inventory has crept up from the low point in 2022. But Vincent noted that despite the overall percentage of jets for sale worldwide reaching 7.5% worldwide, that number shrinks to 1.3% for aircraft delivered since 2014 and to 0.5% for aircraft five years or less.
While the industry is flourishing, views tend to vary regionally. When asked about top industry challenges in the next five years, both North American and European operators listed supply chains within their top two concerns. However, in Europe, environmental sustainability issues were the second most challenging issue, but that did not rise to the top five issues in North America.
In fact, when asked whether they would consider using sustainable aviation fuels, only 9.2% of respondents in North America said they strongly agreed that they would and 26.2% said they somewhat agreed. This compares with Europe, where 57.6% indicated strong or somewhat strong plans to use SAF. Vincent said this shows that the industry still has to work to do.
Conversely, when asked about the willingness to promote the industry, respondents in North America logged a net promoter score of 49% (those who would promote versus the detractors), while Europe had a score of just 15%. Vincent said that may play in the ability to attract new workers.