Story ID: 436
JetNet: Near-term Uncertainty Clouds Industry Optimism
By: Curt Epstein
Caption: The upcoming U.S. elections and geopolitical conflcts serve to spur indecision
Word Count: 585
“Uncertainty is the number one word that we see,” said Rolland Vincent, JetNet iQ survey founder and the head of Rolland Vincent Associates, while describing the current industry sentiment. “We see it all over our data—what’s going on? What’s going to happen?”
Speaking on Monday morning on press day at NBAA-BACE, Vincent detailed the results of the latest JetNet iQ quarterly survey, which is in its 14th year. From its recently closed Q3 survey, the industry’s net optimism score is the lowest since the start of the Covid pandemic in Q2 2020, with North America leading the plunge. “People are very confused,” said Vincent. “Uncertainty is profound right now.”
Among the major factors is angst over the looming U.S. presidential election, now less than a month away. Based on the survey’s historical data, uncertainty was seen in Q3 in the past two election years but rebounded after the election results were certified.
Another source of indecision is the several ongoing geopolitical conflicts that threaten to expand. Vincent soundly rejected the suggestion that the U.S. economy is doing poorly. “We’re in a very robust and very resilient place,” he said, explaining that the predicted economic growth is the same average growth rate the U.S. has seen since the 1960s.
Vincent noted that the industry backlog has stood at approximately $50 billion for the past three years. “We’re not clearing out the backlog, but the good news is the backlog is holding,” he stated. “We’re not in a demand-weakened world; people want what we do, whether we are doing products or services in this industry, they want what we do. All we have to do is deliver it.” In terms of book-to-bill, Vincent expects the airframers to end the year at 1-to-1 or slightly below.
Looking at the preowned market, he remarked that inventory is slowly increasing from its record lows of the past few years, which means that used aircraft transactions will also increase due to available aircraft.
One of the questions in this year’s survey dealt with the perception of the value of business aviation, asking if respondents felt their company or organization would be less profitable and successful without it. More than 90% agreed with that statement.
The survey also asked its audience to list what they perceive as the top challenges faced by the industry over the next five years, with aerospace supply chain recovery topping the list. “We’re not there,” stated Vincent, adding, “We have to get this fixed.” Rounding out the top three slots was a shortage in MRO capacity and attracting and retaining talent.
For its annual 10-year forecast, JetNet predicts deliveries of 8,600 business jets worth a total of $262 billion. Vincent noted that they dialed back the forecast slightly to reflect the impact of the Textron Aviation strike and the delays in Gulfstream’s G700 deliveries. In the same decade outlook, the forecast added 4,300 turboprops at $25 billion through 2033.
On Monday, the company also announced the launch of a new product from its WingX data analysis subsidiary, which it purchased a year ago.
The "Global Insight Professional" solution allows users to generate reports and daily updates using data compiled over the past five years. Customers can develop personalized granular trend reports based on various parameters such as aircraft type, airports and city pairs, operator names, fuel volumes, and more.