Established trends in predicted long-term jetliner requirements will likely continue with little change to the market breakdown by aircraft size, according to latest Boeing 20-year forecast statistics, which were unveiled in London on the eve of the 2014 Farnborough Airshow. Overall, the U.S. manufacturer foresees global demand during the 2014 to 2033 timeframe for some 36,770 new machines, a 4.2-percent increase over last year’s Current Market Outlook (CMO) said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes marketing vice-president, who estimates the market is worth $5.2 trillion (at nominal catalogue prices).
Of the required aircraft, 21,270 (about 58 percent) will service fleet growth with the balance of 15,500 being used to replace current units; retirements will provide “a strong base” for demand. Some 5,410 of the present fleet are expected to remain in service beyond 2033.
Single-aisle (or “narrowbody”) aircraft, accommodating 90 to 230 passengers, will continue to dominate the world’s air-transport landscape, sustaining the trend of the past five years by accounting for almost 70 percent of forecast new commercial-aircraft deliveries (see table). Likewise, small and medium twin-aisle (or “widebody”) designs, with capacities for 200 to 400 travelers, will represent a little more than 20 percent of aircraft expected to enter service in the period.
Among bottom- and top-end contenders in the 20-year market, regional-jets with up to 90 seats and very-large aircraft (VLAs, dubbed “large twin-aisles” by Boeing) holding 400-plus occupants are seen as representing just 6.8-percent and 1.7-percent shares, respectively.
The single-aisle market is projected to need 25,680 new airplanes, driven by the “continued emergence” of low-cost carriers. Based on “overwhelming orders and [predicted] deliveries,” Boeing sees the heart of the single-aisle market as being around 160 seats, the size of the Boeing 737-800 and competing Airbus A320. “There’s no question the market is converging to this size, where network flexibility and cost efficiency meet,” said Tinseth.
Single-aisle Dominance
Having been steady in Boeing predictions for the past half-decade, the single-aisle market’s 69.8-percent share of 2014-2033 deliveries represents a strong increase for the sector, which had accounted for 59.1 percent of forecast 20-year demand in 2004. Tinseth said that “about 36-37 percent” of the projected single-aisle demand is already covered by manufacturers’ order backlogs.
The growth has come very much at the expense of the industry’s regional-jet element, which declined from a 17.1-percent share of projected deliveries 10 years ago to single digits with the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Indeed, the regional-jet share of Boeing’s forecast fell to less than 6 percent in 2011-2013 editions, before showing a slight recovery this year to a 6.8 percent share of expected deliveries between now and 2033.
Nevertheless, Tinseth sees the regional-jet market as having “truly stabilized” and he expects it to grow. “That’s where our next competition is coming from,” he said. Single-aisle and regional-jet designs have represented a consistent combined share of between 73 percent and 76 percent throughout the past ten editions of the market forecast document.
The world’s airlines will require almost 8,000 new airplanes in the combined small and medium-sized twin-aisle market segments that, like the combined smaller sectors, have been very consistent over the past 10 years, according to the CMO (which this year makes its 50th appearance in the public domain). At 7,980 units, the 21.6 percent share is one percentage point higher now than ten years ago and has hovered between that level and 23.3 percent throughout 2004-2014.
Very-large Aircraft
Finally, AIN analysis shows Boeing’s forecast statistics for very-large aircraft very much yo-yoing from year to year since 2003. While the 2012 prediction of 20-year demand for 790 such machines duplicated the requirement foreseen back in 2004, the U.S. manufacturer’s perception of the 20-year market was as high as 960-990 during 2006-2008, the first three years following its launch of the 747-8 in late 2005.
After falling to 720 in 2010, the VLA market forecast rose to 820 in 2011 before declining once more through 760 last year to the latest prediction of just 620 units. Proportionally, the sector has accounted for between 2 and 3 percent of the global market during 2004-2013, with projections falling below the lower value only in the 2014 edition of the CMO, the first since Boeing launched its 777X variants late last year.
The Asia Pacific airline market (including China) will continue to lead the way in deliveries, according to Tinseth. Some 13,460, 37 percent of global requirements, will be needed in the region, with North America and Europe each accounting for about another 20 percent, or around 7,500 machines. Likewise, Latin America and the Middle East will each take about 2,950 airplanes, or eight percent.
Airline traffic is seen as growing by 5 percent a year, with passenger numbers escalating by a slightly smaller 4.2 percent annually as average stage lengths increase steadily. Annual air cargo traffic is predicted to go up by 4.7 percent, ahead of world economic growth put by Boeing at 3.2 percent per year.
TABLE
Boeing Commercial-aircraft Market Forecast
(2014-33)
Airplane type Seats Deliveries Value
Regional jets 90 and below 2,490 $ 100 billion
Single-aisle 90 – 230 25,680 $2,560 billion
Small twin-aisle 200 – 300 4,520 $1,140 billion
Medium twin-aisle 300 – 400 3,460 $1,160 billion
Large widebody 400 and above 620 $ 240 billion
Total 36,770 $5,200 billion
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook