Comac's C919 airliner is China’s preeminent civil aerospace program and the November 11 to 16 Airshow China in Zhuhai is the country’s leading biennial air show. So, through Western eyes at least, it might seem reasonable to assume that the event would provide state controlled-Comac with a prime opportunity to convince the world that the C919 can compete with the Boeing 737 Max and the Airbus A320neo.
Early indicators from the show were encouraging, as China Merchants Bank ordered 30 more of the new narrowbody (to add to the 10 it ordered at the 2012 Zhuhai show, and the 10 it ordered two years earlier). However, Comac's confirmation of the deal in a statement to wire services amounted to virtually all the interaction its officials would have with the media at this year’s show. The order does not appear on the website of either company and the most recent news released by Comac about the C919 is a 132-word statement issued on October 30, giving minimal information about the delivery of the forward section of the aircraft’s first aft fuselage. At the show, AIN's reporters found that, despite scheduling a press conference, Comac was unwilling to provide updated information on a program that has repeatedly fallen behind schedule and whose latest schedules call for a first flight by the end of 2015 and service entry in 2018.
Comac’s persistent failure to speak openly about the status of its key program only serves to fuel skepticism about to what extent its experience with the long-delayed ARJ21 regional airliner has informed its approach to the C919. Airbus and Boeing have often experienced setbacks with major programs but, for the most part, they have been fairly candid in communicating its problems to the marketplace. AIN, like most media outlets, has always had to rely on Comac’s Western partners to get any sort of first-hand information about the status of the program, and usually on a not-for-attribution basis. For instance, last week AIN learned that at the most recent quarterly program review meeting held in late October, Comac told its partners that it would finish assembling the first full prototype by the end of December. Photographs showing work underway with various fuselage sections at Comac’s Shanghai factory suggest an overly optimistic assessment, but in theory the C919 would roll out in mid-2015 if all goes according to plan.
If the C919 truly remains Comac’s top priority, it wasn’t entirely evident from the company’s profile at Airshow China. At the same time, Comac offered no further comment on when it will finally achieve certification for the ARJ21.
In the meantime, Comac is supposedly advancing its partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) to develop an airplane in the same class as the Airbus A330 twinjet called the C929. According to UAC chief executive Mikhail Pogosyan, the airplane would have a range of almost 6,500 nm and hold between 250 and 300 passengers. “The discussions and assessments of the business case, industrial potential, technology transfer, etc., are on-going at this point,” said Pogosyan. Neither company would comment at all on the projected timetable for starting design and manufacturing work, but sketchy information from Chinese and Russian officials points to a first flight at some point between 2020 and 2023.