Toulouse-based manufacturer ATR (Chalet B25) comes to Farnborough full of confidence as the Franco-Italian company (owned 50:50 by Airbus Group and Leonardo Finmeccanica) continues its extraordinary revival of a turboprop airliner market many once thought was dead.
Some ten years after it came back from virtual shut-down it produced 88 aircraft last year, 70 percent of a growing worldwide fleet, and is confident of hitting 100 aircraft a year this year–and at least maintaining that over the next 20 years. It predicts it could take 80% of a market for up to 2,800 aircraft (112 a year)–and now has the capacity to produce 120 a year if the demand requires it.
Speaking to reporters last week, v-p marketing Zuzana Hrnkova said ATR is “the reference in this market segment” and had delivered 1,270 aircraft from a total that has now reached 1,530 firm orders–making its order share 80% since 2010, and “40% of all regional aircraft up to 100 seats.”
Revealing the company’s new market forecast Hrnkova said that ATR had created a new “flow model” for predicting new city pairs (routes), related to factors such as population, airport activity, GDP and distance.
For 2016-2035 this forecasts a 3.2% per annum rate of fleet growth for route creation, while ATR sees 3.5% for growth on existing routes but a rate of decline of 2.9% as existing turboprops are traded out for larger (i.e. jet) aircraft. “So the average annual growth will be 3.9% over the next 20 years, assuming GDP growth of 3%
She said the key point is that 50% of growth will come from route creation. “We predict more than 3,000 new routes will be opened and this will require 900 turboprop aircraft.”
The 2,800 total turboprops splits into 600 in the 40-60 seat category and 2,200 in the 61-80 seat range. Of the 2,100 turboprop airliner fleet now, ATR forecasts that 1,100 will remain in 2035, 1,000 will be replacement aircraft and the other 1,800 will be to provide for growth (giving the average of 3.9%).
In terms of geographical split ATR forecasts as follows: Asia Pacific (excluding China) 28%; China 10%; Latin America and the Caribbean, 14%; Europe and the CIS, 21%; North America, 16%; and Africa and the Middle East, 11%.
Hrnkova added that there was little evidence of demand at present for a 90-seater turboprop–suggesting that the business case was not there yet. “We have not excluded any possibility in aircraft improvement and development,” she told journalists. Meanwhile ATR head of market strategy Bertrand Pabon, who led the team compiling the new forecast, suggested that a “100-seater turboprop could stimulate the market.”
Product Improvements
Hrnkova said, “Our strategy is to maintain our strength and continuously innovate and improve our product.” To that end, she said the company’s engineers were working on cockpit avionics “Standard 3” for introduction in 2018, and this can accommodate the in-development ClearVision system (which is being displayed by ATR’s static display). The system, which allows “equivalent visual operations,” includes a Skylens Head Wearable Display (HWD) and EVS infrared camera, allowing approaches to lower minima in low-visibility conditions, enhanced further by overlaying synthetic 3D terrain. “This extends the flexibility of operations…and helps to avoid unstable approaches,” said Hrnkova.
She also reflected on improvements over the past few of years including the upgrade to the -600 Series for both the ATR 72 and 50-seater ATR42, with the Armonia cabin; a new high-density configuration that was certificated last December (Cebu Pacific of the Philippines is launch customer); and the CargoFlex combi option that entered service with PNG Airlines last year. In addition, a new Smart Galley, which can be quickly reconfigured depending on requirements, is now available.