With mandates and blending goals being imposed on the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), renewable fuel producer SKYNRG predicts a worldwide demand and supply for SAF of at least 4.5 billion gallons by 2030, with voluntary usage by business aviation, airlines, and cargo operators expected to further increase that amount. By 2050 that total could reach 42 billion gallons in markets where blending mandates or production goals are in place or under development.
In its "Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2023" released Wednesday morning, SKYNRG noted that with SAF derived from a variety of feedstocks and processes, certain regions will likely favor one over the other going forward based on policy and supply. For example, in the EU, waste oil-based SAF and eSAF will be more attractive, while HEFA-process fuel produced from agricultural commodities such as soybean oil will prove favorable in the U.S.
The report noted that an impediment to the success of vegetable-based HEFA could be competition from renewable diesel, which could place a strain on feedstock supply, “or risk impacting global agricultural commodity markets by significantly expanding soybean oil production.”
For the U.S. to have enough domestic production in operation by 2050 to replace its pre-Covid jet fuel demand of 27 billion gallons annually with SAF, it would require approximately 250 SAF refineries representing an investment of some $400 billion, the report stated. The EU would need a further 150 refineries worth $250 billion in capital expenditures. Growing jet fuel demand beyond the pre-Covid levels would result in increased competition for feedstock and would challenge the ability to meet 2050 SAF production goals.