Escalating military conflicts, NATO’s future in flux, and aerospace and defense companies absorbing the impact of U.S. tariffs compose a backdrop to what could be the most consequential Paris Air Show in years. The fallout from these vexatious issues seems set to reshape industry alliances and market expectations for aircraft and equipment sales.
But geopolitics will not eclipse the prominent profile of cutting-edge technology this week during the 55th biennial salon at Le Bourget. In the absence of major new airliners or military aircraft, electric aircraft will provide much of the novelty, and industry leaders will debate the growing role of artificial intelligence, future propulsion systems, autonomy, and the interminable struggle to fix stubborn supply-chain weaknesses.
Recent surveys conducted by consulting group Accenture found that 65% of aerospace factory managers are now prioritizing investment in technologies that are “foundational to achieve hyper-automation, such as digital product, process, and systems twins.”
According to Accenture global aerospace and defense lead John Schmidt, the drive to improve productivity is based on the commercial aerospace executives’ expectation of a 61% increase in revenue growth over the next six months, rising to 76% over the next year. He told AIN that this represents “a sign of growing confidence in supply-chain improvements and production scalability.”
Under Trump administration pressure, European NATO member states are now ramping up military spending. However, Schmidt acknowledged this trend could have unforeseen consequences for U.S. defense contractors. “A shift we’re seeing is a big push for Europe to buy from Europe,” he said.
On Thursday, President Trump signaled that in two or three weeks, he will press ahead with full implementation of tariffs on multiple nations ahead of his previously set July 9 deadline for trade deals to be sealed. Schmidt, who is a board member of the Aerospace Industries Association, told AIN he remains optimistic that concerns raised by U.S. business leaders may be making some impression on the White House. But the tumultuous unwinding of the tariff strategy has left long-standing European partners of the U.S. industry feeling more like adversaries.
In the meantime, companies are facing additional costs as they scramble to dual-source components. According to Schmidt, they are also scouring contracts to work out whether customers or suppliers will take the worst hit.
Air India Accident Clouds Show
Beyond Le Bourget, but much on the minds of several prominent Paris Air Show exhibitors, is the question of what caused Thursday’s fatal accident of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner that crashed into a building right after takeoff from Ahmedabad. The accident claimed the lives of 270 people, including all but one of the 242 passengers.
Some airshow exhibitors, including Boeing and engine makers CFM International and GE Aerospace, canceled planned events at the airshow due to the accident. In fact, Boeing Company president and CEO Kelly Ortberg and his counterpart at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Stephanie Pope, canceled plans to come to Paris.
India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau appears to still be in the early stages of understanding what caused the first-ever 787 hull loss. The flight data recorder was recovered on Friday from the rooftop of the BJ Medical College hostel, where the aircraft’s tail was embedded in the wall of the two-story building.
At press time, the cockpit voice recorder had yet to be found. However, Indian aviation minister Samir Kumar Sinha confirmed on Saturday that the pilot-in-command had issued a distress call less than a minute after taking off but had not responded to air traffic controllers before the aircraft crashed.
Escalating military conflicts, NATO’s future in flux, and aerospace and defense companies absorbing the impact of U.S. tariffs composed a backdrop at the Paris Air Show, positioning it as one of the most consequential in years.
Sensitivities around the geopolitical conflicts were on full display as the show organizers either blocked off or cordoned off most of the exhibits from Israeli aerospace exhibitors. Show organizers erected large black walls around their indoor exhibits the night before the opening of the 55th biennial salon at Le Bourget.
The affected exhibitors claimed discrimination by the French government. A representative from Elbit Systems, one of the companies whose display was obstructed, spoke to AIN on the condition of anonymity and claimed that the move came as a surprise. “It came from the head of the Paris Air Show. It said that following the instructions of the French government, we were supposed to take some items off [display]. They added an annex of which items we were supposed to take off, and unless we did so, they would mask them somehow, block them somehow, cover them. We didn’t know exactly what shape it was going to take. We didn’t comply at the time. When we came in…we were taken aback.”
Agence France-Presse reported that the French government gave the order due to the display of “offensive weapons,” including those used in Gaza. Show organizers did not respond to requests for comment.
The geopolitical tensions showed in other ways, such as the absence of Russian aircraft on static display and a scaled-down Chinese presence.
But geopolitics did not eclipse the prominent profile of cutting-edge technology during the event. In the absence of major new airliners or military aircraft, hybrid and electric aircraft provided much of the novelty, both on the technological and the order front. Many were on display, including the first certified advanced air mobility vehicle, the Chinese E-Hang eVTOL.
Key agreements were announced, such as a memorandum of understanding signed on June 19 for Lockheed Martin Skunk Works to help Electra Aero accelerate development of its hybrid-electric EL9 ultra-short takeoff and landing aircraft. A day earlier, EASA signed a pre-application contract with Elfly covering the development of a conceptual prototype for its Noemi electric seaplane. The agreement is a step towards achieving type certification for the nine-passenger aircraft in 2030.
Boeing subsidiary Wisk Aero signed agreements with officials from Miami and from Kaga, Japan, to help forward autonomous operations and research in those areas. Daher, Safran, and Collins Aerospace announced that they were collaborating with French start-up Ascendance to develop hybrid-electric propulsion systems for general aviation, among the many other announcements.
In fact, it was an advanced air mobility deal that was the first announced at the Paris Air Show—on Sunday, June 15, when Brazil’s Revo signed a binding contract that will see it operate air taxi services in São Paulo with 50 Eve Air Mobility four-passenger eVTOL aircraft. The spinoff from helicopter group Omni intends to take delivery of the first 10 vehicles in late 2027, with the others to follow as it scales up the operation.
That agreement was followed by a letter of intent signed with Future Flight Global for up to 54 aircraft to serve the Americas.
Overall orders were somewhat tempered after Boeing opted to pull back on its commercial side of the business following the June 12 fatal crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner in Ahmedabad. The accident claimed the lives of 270 people, including all but one of the 242 passengers.
At many events during the airshow, executives from various companies extended their condolences and thoughts to the families of the accident victims. Some airshow exhibitors, including Boeing and engine makers CFM International and GE Aerospace, canceled planned events at the airshow due to the accident. In addition, Boeing Company president and CEO Kelly Ortberg and his counterpart at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Stephanie Pope, canceled plans to come to Paris.
Even so, orders and options for several hundred aircraft were logged. With Boeing’s quiet presence (it did affirm a previous ANA order), Airbus grabbed headlines with its bounty, most notably bringing LOT Polish Airlines into the fold for the first time with firm orders for 40 and options for another 44 for its A220. This wrested a deal away from long-time LOT customer Embraer. But Embraer still walked away from Paris with a $3.6 billion deal from SkyWest Airlines for 60 E175s and purchase rights for 50 more.
ATR, meanwhile, also brought a new customer into the fold—Part 380 carrier JSX, which is going to trial on-demand, per-seat service with a pair of 30-seat leased ATR 42s later this year but has a letter of intent for up to 25 more.
Under Trump administration pressure, European NATO member states are now ramping up military spending. However, Accenture global aerospace and defense lead John Schmidt noted that this trend could have unforeseen consequences for U.S. defense contractors. “A shift we’re seeing is a big push for Europe to buy from Europe,” he said.
Perhaps as a sign to that end, Airbus announced that NATO procurement agency OCCAR signed an agreement with the aerospace giant that will see production of the A400M airlifter secured for the foreseeable future, as well as the joint development of additional capabilities and efforts to lower operating costs. Until 2029, production will be stabilized at an optimum rate of eight aircraft per year, achieved by bringing forward build slots for four aircraft for France and three for Spain.
Airbus Helicopters and Leonardo are launching a joint architecture study to define the long-term evolution for the NH90 helicopter following a request from the NATO Helicopter Management Agency. The Block 2 upgrade will tackle modular avionics, improve maintenance and performance, and add new capabilities such as crewed-uncrewed teaming and collaborative combat.
Also among the announcements on the defense side of the show: French defense procurement agency DGA selected Saab’s GlobalEye early warning and control platform. The government signed a declaration of intent with the Swedish manufacturer to buy a pair of GlobalEye aircraft, with options for two more. Bombardier provides its Global 6500 for the GlobalEye platform. The deal is expected to be finalized in the next few months and will include ground equipment training and support.
But U.S.-based manufacturers also had their successes. Textron Aviation Defense and Thai Aviation Industries agreed to jointly develop a sustainment program for the Royal Thai Air Force’s Beechcraft T-6TH trainers and AT-6TH Wolverine light attack/border patrol aircraft. The RTAF ordered 12 T-6THs for its advanced training unit at Kamphaeng Saen and eight AT-6THs to be operated by the 411 “Thunder” squadron at Chiang Mai.
Boeing Defense Space & Security (BDS), meanwhile, said it is pouring billions into Europe, mostly in the supply chain but also in supporting local industry development, as it vies to expand its base there. These include investing in countries such as Poland, which is undergoing a large uplift of modern aircraft into its air force. Polish company PGZ is gearing up to service the fleet of 96 AH-64E Apaches that are soon to be delivered to the country’s air force. In Ukraine, Boeing has teamed with Antonov to rebuild the local aerospace industry, with a small UAV now under development.
As business continued, tariffs were never too far out of the discussions, especially given the July 9 date that had been looming for trade deals to be sealed.
During the airshow, Canada signaled its intent to decouple from its immediate neighbor and forge closer ties with Europe, while U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy hinted that the Trump Administration may consider removing aviation from its standoff with what it views as trade adversaries.
Speaking during a fireside chat with Aerospace Industries Association president and CEO Eric Fanning during the airshow, Duffy insisted that the U.S. is using tariffs to rebalance trade deficits. However, he acknowledged that free trade has benefited aviation. “It’s been remarkable,” he said. “The White House understands that. If you go there and see the new parts of what they are doing, it’s a lot.”
On this basis, the U.S. position could be about to change. “I would make the point that we should take aviation off the negotiating table going back to 1979 [when the Agreement on Trade and Civil Aircraft was signed], and that only helps us,” Duffy stated. “This would take negotiation leverage away from some of our partners, and that would be beneficial to the U.S.”
At the same time, Canadian Minister of Industry Mélanie Joly doubled down on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s position that the country is currently in a “trade war” with the U.S. She applauded the decision by some Canada-based aerospace companies that are diversifying from the U.S. market.
“I think Canadians were shocked by the decision by the Trump Administration in February to impose illegal and unjustifiable tariffs, which later was a direct attack on our workers, particularly in the auto sector and particularly also in the steel and aluminum sectors,” she told AIN. “What businesspeople themselves have seen is that they need to do much more east-west business, not necessarily north-south like how Canada is currently organized […] Our strategy is to make sure that as a government we can lead the way, and then businesspeople are able to benefit from the opening of doors that we’re doing, particularly now in France and in Europe.”
All of this put the Paris Air Show in the center. AIA’s Fanning noted that the show presents an opportunity to highlight to the global stage that the U.S. remains open for business. Importantly, in the context of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, AIA also viewed it as an opportunity to signal to political leaders in Washington, D.C., that the U.S. industry has long delivered a positive trade balance for the national economy.
Washington has taken notice. Not only was Duffy present at multiple events, but Capitol Hill sent its largest contingent yet to the Paris Air Show, with members in the House and Senate attending. Typically, only a few lawmakers, primarily from the Senate and with a Defense focus on their plates, have attended in the past.
But with a new Capitol Hill this year and many urgent global issues, key leaders made sure they had a seat at the table in Paris.
—The AIN Paris Air Show News team contributed to this report