Dubai Airshow Stands Out for Airliner Orders and Military Surprises

The Gulf, where blockbuster commercial aviation demand converges with rising regional military spending, is arguably the prime location for a major aerospace and defense event. With the UAE consistently demonstrating its willingness to handle international relations in its own unique way, the Dubai Airshow this week is poised to make its mark as the industry closes 2025.

Spending by airlines, airports, and other civil aviation service providers in the Middle East is projected to exceed $28 billion this year, on track to surpass $35 billion by 2030. Last week, the IBA consultancy predicted that more than 300 new commercial aircraft orders and commitments would be announced during the show. Based on very approximate average pricing, this business could add around $60 billion to the year-end tally.

According to IBA’s chief economist and data officer, Stuart Hatcher, Emirates might confirm plans to switch its planned purchases for Boeing’s delayed 777X widebody to the 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A350-1000 models instead. He expects Airbus to have a good show, with fresh interest in its A350F freighter, and foresees more narrowbody orders from local carriers Oman Air and Etihad.

However, behind these new aircraft orders lies complexity, according to Scott Hamilton, senior editor with Leeham News and Analysis, which is part of AIN Media Group. “The Middle East airlines can expect more delivery delays from Airbus and Boeing because of supply-chain delays primarily for engines and interiors,” he commented on the eve of the Dubai Airshow. “Etihad and Qatar still have issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engine on the Airbus A350-1000, and Tim Clark at Emirates remains skeptical of this engine on the A350-1000, hence his continued reticence in ordering the airplane.”

Hamilton expects Boeing to have a positive show with a strong presence headlined by the appearance of its 777-9 aircraft. Overall, he sees geopolitics being favorable in the context of the U.S. presence at the Dubai event.

“[President] Trump’s tariff war with everybody doesn’t help Boeing, but Trump’s relationship with Middle Eastern countries does,” Hamilton commented. “Boeing has received some important orders that Trump has announced, though I think they would have happened anyway. The 40-day U.S. government shutdown hurt the U.S. airlines, but this won’t affect things in the Middle East.”

Geopolitics Leave Their Mark

Geopolitics are also apparent in the profile of military aircraft on show in Dubai this week. Alongside somewhat predictable appearances by aircraft such as the Airbus A400M transporter, Dassault’s Rafale warplane, and Eurofighter’s Typhoon, there are several items unlikely to be found elsewhere on the international air show circuit.

The Sukhoi S-57 fighter will certainly turn heads, given that Russia’s industry remains persona non grata at the Paris and Farnborough shows while President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine heads for its fourth anniversary. A Russian presence in Dubai stands in marked contrast to the show organizers’ decision to uninvite Israeli exhibitors in the wake of Israel’s attack on Qatar’s capital, Doha.

Less contentiously, the JF-17 Mushshak fighter, jointly developed by Pakistan and China, adds to the novelty at the show. The UAE’s Al Fursan display team is also appearing with its new Chinese JL-10 jets.

Also making the trip from China is state-backed airframer COMAC with its C919 narrowbody airliner. Whether this proves to be the year that it starts to give Airbus and Boeing a run for their money remains to be seen.