Report: Global SAF Market To Reach $50 Billion by 2036

A new study by UK-based market analyst ID TechEx predicts that the global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market could reach $50 billion over the next decade. Production capacity of renewable diesel and SAF—which are closely linked in terms of processing—could exceed 67 million tonnes annually by 2036, it added.

Last year was a crucial one for SAF with the introduction of SAF-use mandates in the UK and EU, creating mandatory demand for the renewable fuel. Report author Eve Pope expects that demand will continue to rise as further decarbonization regulations are enacted.

There are nearly a dozen approved SAF production pathways, but the bulk of SAF is produced via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process, which relies on used cooking oils, animal fats, and greases as feedstocks. Supply of these feedstocks is limited, and Pope expects SAF demand to outstrip feedstock availability around 2030.

Emerging pathways such as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and e-SAF are expected to take up the slack, with some refineries now coming online. LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines facility in Georgia, with a capacity of 9 million gallons of SAF a year, began operation last year, making it the first ATJ refinery to produce SAF on a commercial scale. For many of the new production processes, high costs still remain a significant barrier to be addressed by technology development and regulations, according to Pope.