Soaring Jet-A Costs Spur SAF Pricing Questions

With crude oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel, down from the peak of more than $112 per barrel seen earlier this month, some in the industry are pondering the knock-on effects on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and whether petroleum can rise so high to erase the pricing delta between the two. Since the start of the Iran war, the average price per gallon of jet fuel in the U.S. has more than doubled, while in Europe it has reached record highs, with the cost of refined jet-A topping $250 a barrel.

“It’s tempting to draw a straight line between high oil prices and a moment where SAF suddenly ‘wins’ on cost,” said Emily Tobler, 4Air’s sustainability program manager. “In a severe scenario, where crude triples [in price], we could see retail jet fuel prices approaching the mid- to high teens per gallon in certain markets, but those prices would reflect extreme disruption, shortages, and rationing, not a healthy market where cost parity between SAF and conventional jet fuel suddenly flips.”

She noted that in Europe, where mandates have required the use of SAF, the price of neat, unblended SAF has increased less rapidly than jet-A. Before the start of hostilities, neat SAF was trading at under $7 a gallon, but rose to $8.50 per gallon by late March. The “green premium,” the pricing delta between jet-A and blended SAF, has narrowed by 30% in that span.

Yet, Tobler explained, while the ultimate goal is to get to 100% renewable SAF, it’s unlikely that it will become cheaper than conventional fuel any time soon. “A more useful way to frame this is not ‘when does SAF become cheaper’ but what role does SAF play in fuel resilience?” she told AIN. “As jet fuel prices surge, there’s a renewed use case for homegrown, renewable fuel.”