Dubai Exhibitors Anticipate Resumption of Brisk Sales Activity

While few expected airliner sales during the last Dubai Airshow to live up to the lofty standard set by the order windfall two years earlier, the timing of certain high-profile sales campaigns might make the 2017 show a lucrative affair in its own right. Of course, the absence of Qatar Airways, resulting from the diplomatic row between Qatar and four of its Arab neighbors, will remove one reliable source of business, but at least two major orders due by the end of this year could more than compensate.  

While the Middle East’s traditionally big customers rarely reveal their intentions to even the sellers of the equipment in question until close to show time, this Dubai show looks likely to set a stage for airlines to display their resilience amid the political turmoil and economic uncertainly that has beset the region recently.  

One of the most high-profile prizes resides with the coffers of Egyptair. Now in the midst of a fleet modernization, the airline by late September had taken all but one of nine new Boeing 737-800s ordered last year. It entered what Boeing vice president of sales for the Middle East Marty Bentrott called the RFP process linked to a broader campaign to acquire a range of types including widebodies as early as a year ago. Models under consideration include the Boeing 787-9 and -10 as well as 737 Max narrowbodies and their Airbus counterparts, namely the A350 and A320neo.

Closer to home, Emirates Airline appeared ready to decide between Dreamliners or A350s as well. The largest customer and launch operator for the 777X and flying the world’s largest fleet of A380s, Emirates certainly ranks as a blue-chip customer for both Boeing and Airbus. Emirates fleet needs and capacity constraints would suggest a preference for larger variants of the available midsize widebodies such as the 787-10, notwithstanding early concerns voiced by the airline’s CEO, Tim Clark, that the mid-range -10 might prove underpowered for the hot operating environment in Dubai. However, some three years ago, Clark canceled an order for 70 A350s, casting doubts about the airline's interest in re-ordering an airplane whose size appears incompatible with the direction the airline has chosen to go with its big order for 777Xs. Plans call for Emirates to shed its oldest A330s and 777s in favor of a new type starting by the end of next year. 

Notwithstanding the purely economic arguments each of the big manufacturers makes, politics could well play a part in Emirates’ decision, as the UAE makes a case to U.S. lawmakers for respecting Open Skies agreement between the two countries. Just last month the UAE ambassador to the U.S. Yousef Al Otaiba visited Boeing’s plant in Charleston, South Carolina, which perhaps not coincidentally builds the 787-10.

In his remarks, Al Otaiba stressed the importance of the Open Skies pact, noting that commercial aviation accounts for the biggest share of the $19 billion trade surplus the U.S. enjoys with the UAE.

“Simply put, without Open Skies, the full scope of Boeing’s business with UAE airlines—and the economic benefits realized by communities all across the U.S. would not be possible,” he said. “The agreement works for everyone, and the aviation trade relationship is an essential part of the broader economic exchanges that connect the UAE and the U.S. and promote our shared prosperity.”