Ryanair remains committed to the 737 Max and is still pondering ordering more of them in spite of the Covid-19 travel slump, group CEO Michael O’Leary said during the company’s November 2 results presentation for the first half of the financial year ending March 31. The Ireland-based company intends also to bring forward deliveries of the Max 200s it has on order, though this will depend on the re-certification of the 737 Max by the FAA and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).
“We hope before the end of the year to announce a new deal with Boeing,” O’Leary stated, adding a new order cannot be concluded until the Max returns to service and a revised delivery schedule for its Max 200s is agreed. Ryanair holds firm orders for 135 high-density-configured Max 8s that seat up to 200, and options on a further 75. The low-cost carrier (LCC) was due to receive its first Max in April 2019 and its initial delivery scheduled called to have 55 MAX 200s in the fleet for the summer of 2020. It now has none.
Boeing president and CEO Dave Calhoun recently said that he expects 737 Max deliveries to resume in the fourth quarter following “rigorous” certification and validation flights with the FAA, EASA, and Transport Canada, totaling 1,400 test and check flights and more than 3,000 flight hours.
Patrick Ky, the head of EASA, last month expressed satisfaction with the results of changes to the 737 Max. In an exchange of views with the transport committee of the European Parliament on October 29, Ky reiterated that the Cologne-based agency is confident that the design deficiencies, in particular everything related to the MCAS, have been corrected and that the aircraft is stable even without the MCAS. The design changes, together with the improvement of the crew procedures and the extension of the crew training program (including requirements of a full flight simulator training and a one-off return to service training on top of initial/recurrent training) will ensure a safe return to service of the aircraft, according to Ky. He told the members of European parliament that he expected the Airworthiness and Safety Directives will be published by the end of November, at which point a four-week public consultation period will begin. This would mean that operations of the Max 8 may resume worldwide towards the end of this year or the beginning of next year, also depending on the COVID context, he said.
Ky highlighted the “good level” of international coordination and support with the relevant authorities in the U.S, Canada, and Brazil. Conditions on the design change and the crew training for return to service are expected to be identical for all four authorities, he said. However, regarding future crew procedures, EASA and Transport Canada will allow the crew to inhibit an erroneous stick shaker while EASA will impose additional (temporary) operational limitations due to lack of Angle-of-Attack (AoA) integrity.
If this latest Max-8 return to service calendar is maintained, Ryanair would be in a “good position” to have the Max 200 certified by EASA in the first quarter of next year, asserted the airline’s CFO Neil Sorahan. “We would hope to have 30 plus aircraft in the fleet for the peak of summer 2021,” he said, adding the LCC is a “keen supporter of this aircraft” because the Max 200—Ryanair will fit the jets with 197 seats—carries 4 percent more passengers than its 189-seat Boeing 737-800NGs and burns 16 percent less fuel per flight, which, he insisted “will be a key element of our cost leadership over the coming five to six years.”
Sorahan stressed the importance of receiving at least 30 Max jets by next summer for the company's fleet renewal programming. The LCC has scheduled the retirement of 17 737-800s by the end of May. “Once we see the Maxes coming in, this will give us the ability to start disposing of some older 737-800s, which would presumably go into cargo conversions in the Asian markets,” he added.
Ryanair carried just 17.1 million passengers in the six months ending in September, compared to 85.7 million in the year-ago period, owing to Covid-19 travel restrictions. Most of its fleet was grounded in the first quarter. The group expects to carry 38 million passengers in its financial year through March 2021—a quarter of its original 154 million target—though it warned that this figure could be revised down further “if EU governments continue to mismanage air travel and impose more uncoordinated travel restrictions or lockdowns this winter.” It flew 149 million passengers in FY2019-20.
Ryanair said it expects to record higher losses in the second half than in the first six months—it reported a net loss of €410 million ($477 million) for the first half—though it remained upbeat on a post-pandemic-recovery. “As we look beyond the Covid-19 crisis, and the emergence of effective vaccines in early 2021, the Ryanair Group expects to have a lower cost base, a stronger balance sheet, which will enable it to fund lower fares, and add new lower-cost aircraft to capitalize on the many growth opportunities that will be available in all markets across Europe, especially where competitor airlines have substantially cut capacity or failed.”