Governments have not received calls from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for the lifting of quarantines with much enthusiasm or responsiveness, despite the group’s persistent efforts to draw attention to scientific evidence of the ineffectiveness of such restrictions, IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac conceded Tuesday. Speaking during the latest of a series of media briefings on Covid-19 effects on the industry, de Juniac expressed some frustration with governments’ failure to respond to a recent study by EASA and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) that called for states to treat travelers in the same way they treat members of the local populations who have not had any direct contact with a person infected with Covid-19. He did, however, concede that the methods of rapid testing that IATA recommends taking the place of quarantines remain comparatively immature, a point that he said might explain authorities’ slow response.
“It takes time because our call for systematic testing using new technologies such as antigen testing is based on very recent improvement in the technology of the test,” remarked de Juniac. “So it’s not surprising that governments and health authorities are cautious and are slow-moving. But we are pushing hard for them to implement this type of testing. We see some governments moving; the French government is moving; the German government is also thinking of moving in that direction; we see some Asian governments moving in that direction—Singapore, for instance. So progressively, it is coming into force but the way still is pretty long.”
De Juniac’s comments come in the context of accelerating Covid cases around the world, resulting in what could become airlines’ most challenging period of the pandemic. Also speaking during Tuesday’s briefing, IATA chief economist Brian Pearce lamented the slow recovery of international traffic in particular, which, he said, remains some 88 percent below 2019 levels. Although calling international markets “exceptionally weak,” Pearce noted that more testing in Central America has generated “some growth” between that region and North America. On a more optimistic note, however, the IATA economist cited an improvement in domestic revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), which have reached some 40 percent of last year’s levels. In fact, load factors seen in domestic markets have reached 70 percent, or above break-even, said Pearce.
Noting the group’s estimate that the industry will not return to “cash positive” until the fourth quarter of next year, IATA global airport infrastructure and fuel director Hemant Mistry called for further public support beyond the $173 billion in aid governments have provided so far, not only through direct subsidy to airlines but through market stimulation schemes. Mistry cited the U.S. Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act as an example of an effective means of such market stimulation through, for example, the suspension of the domestic ticket tax, the federal flight segment tax, and the international arrival and departure tax.
The IATA official also recommended route subsidies for rural communities and tourism markets, per-seat subsidies to encourage airlines to fly more frequencies with low load factors, advance purchase of tickets by governments to support liquidity, and general travel subsidies in the form of packages supporting fares, hotel accommodations, and tours.
Examples include a Cypriot connectivity scheme begun in July 2020 involving a €7 to €17 per passenger subsidy based on load factor. Mistry said that program helped restore airline operations to/from about 40 countries.
In Greece, the government offered an incentive for airlines to restart operations with a €20-per-seat subsidy, resulting in a marked improvement in passenger numbers during April and May. In Hong Kong, the airport authority bought 500,000 tickets in advance of borders opening. It plans to issue the tickets, allocated among the four home carriers, in a so-called “Lucky Draw” to both Hong Kong residents and foreigners. Finally, in Thailand, the government released three stimulus packages to subsidize airfares, accommodation, and services as well as travel for health care workers.
“The initiatives that we’re looking at should be easy for governments to implement but also easy for governments to exit when they see conditions improve,” said Mistry. “The more governments can help, the more we can be in a situation where the industry is able to recover.”