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With sustainability becoming more and more a crucial goal for aviation’s growth, much of the early focus has been on the development of sustainable fuels. But a new report released today by Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) in conjunction with consultancy firm Accenture highlights the advances in aircraft design, technology, and construction that also must be accomplished for the industry to meet decarbonization goals.
As the number of air passengers worldwide is expected to double over the next two decades, without action aviation-related emissions are likely to increase by 40 percent in that span. Horizon 2050: A Flight Plan for the Future of Sustainable Aviation provides an in-depth analysis of the technologies under development, their emission-reduction potential, and estimated entry into service (through a near-, mid-, and long-term lens).
By 2030, improvements in traditionally-fueled propulsion such as geared turbofans and high-pressure ratio core engines are expected to take hold, along with design advances in wingtip devices and riblets. Over the next decade, the report predicts hybrid-electric propulsion will become more common, with advanced composites increasing in usage. Beyond 2040, hydrogen propulsion and fuel cells are anticipated to provide savings in greenhouse gas emissions, along with structural innovations such as blended-wing bodies and transonic trust-braced wings entering service.
The report concludes that government support will be vital to foster the development of those technologies and includes a roadmap to help shape industry standards to ensure their safe and swift incorporation.
“There is no silver bullet when it comes to achieving the industry’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,” said AIA v-p for civil aviation and report co-author David Silver. “Dramatic changes to airport operations and infrastructure, offsets and sustainable aviation fuels, and, crucially, cutting-edge aerospace technologies all have a role to play in making this goal a reality.”
With sustainability becoming more and more a crucial goal for aviation’s growth, much of the early focus has been on the development of sustainable fuels. But a report recently released by the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) in conjunction with consultancy firm Accenture highlights the advances in aircraft design, technology, and construction that also must be accomplished for the industry to meet decarbonization goals.
As the number of air passengers worldwide is expected to double over the next two decades, without action, aviation-related emissions are likely to increase by 40 percent in that span. Horizon 2050: A Flight Plan for the Future of Sustainable Aviation provides an in-depth analysis of the technologies under development, their emission-reduction potential, and estimated entry into service (through a near-, mid-, and long-term lens).
At 1 pm on Tues. July 19th, report authors David Silver, v-p of civil aviation for AIA, and John Schmidt, Accenture’s global A&D lead will discuss their results at the Farnborough Airshow’s FINN Theater.
While their study focuses mainly on aircraft and engine technologies, they note that it will be impossible for the industry to achieve its net-zero goals without substantially decarbonizing the energy supply, be it sustainable aviation fuel, hydrogen, or battery-stored electricity. Only a combined effort between the two segments can achieve the ambitious results.
Given that, Schmidt and Silver evaluated potential emissions reduction solutions from OEMs, airplane platform technologies developers, and associated partners based on their potential, maturity status (under the classification of research, development, or adoption), and applicability within time horizons based on expected aircraft entry-into-service. They explained that they do not expect multiple new narrow or wide-body aircraft programs to arrive over the next 20 years, so the industry will have limited opportunities to mature these programs in time for those entries-into-service. The technologies are also evaluated for their potential uptake by aircraft class.
By 2030, the authors note improvements in traditionally-fueled propulsion such as geared turbofans and high-pressure ratio core engines are expected to take hold, along with design advances in wingtip devices and riblets.
Among the technologies in the 2030-2040 time horizon, narrow-body and wide-body applications are expected to have the highest average emission-reduction level when compared to the regional applications due to the larger market share for wide- and narrow-body applications when compared to regional. Through 2040, the report predicts hybrid-electric propulsion will become more common for regional aircraft as well, with advanced composites increasing in usage.
Beyond 2040, hydrogen propulsion and fuel cells are anticipated to provide savings in greenhouse gas emissions, along with structural innovations such as blended-wing bodies and transonic trust-braced wings entering service. All-electric propulsion is expected to be available for regional aircraft. To maximize carbon emissions, technologies can and should be use in combination.
The report concludes that government support will be vital to foster the development of those technologies and includes a roadmap to help shape industry standards to ensure their safe and swift incorporation.
“There is no silver bullet when it comes to achieving the industry’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,” said Silver. “Dramatic changes to airport operations and infrastructure, offsets and sustainable aviation fuels, and, crucially, cutting-edge aerospace technologies all have a role to play in making this goal a reality.”