Airbus projects that airlines and lessors will take delivery of 40,850 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next two decades and Boeing expects a global demand for 42,595 new commercial jets by 2042. Even though figures are not fully comparable because Boeing takes into account smaller-sized regional jets than Airbus does, the companies align in the upward trend of their projections. In the 2022 edition of their forecasts, the European airframer predicted a need for 39,500 new aircraft in the 20-year period and Boeing 41,170. Those figures reflect an increase of 1,360 aircraft and 1,125 units, respectively.
While the delivery outlook year-over-year has increased, Airbus noted its projection for the 2042 world in-service fleet is smaller than the fleet size it projected for 2038 in its global market forecast from 2019. “Yet we see now more deliveries," it said. "This indicates our expectation that the pace of fleet renewal towards the most fuel-efficient aircraft will likely accelerate.” The Toulouse-based company expects that airlines will replace about 17,170 previous-generation aircraft by 2042. Only 25 percent of the current installed in-service fleet consists of the latest generation aircraft, it remarked, adding that “the short-term priority for decarbonizing the sector is to replace the remaining 75 percent previous-generation fleets.” Overall, the global fleet will grow to 46,560 aircraft and single-aisle aircraft (carrying more than 100 passengers) will account for over 80 percent of deliveries over the next two decades, Airbus said.
Boeing, which released its detailed commercial outlook on Sunday, expects the global fleet to nearly double to 48,600 jets, expanding by 3.5 percent per year, as operators replace “about half” of the global fleet with more fuel-efficient models. It projects that OEMs will deliver some 32,000 new single-aisle aircraft—accounting for more than 75 percent of all new shipments—over the next two decades, about 7,400 widebody jets, and some 1,810 regional aircraft. It forecasts that carriers will require 2,800 dedicated freighters, consisting of more than 900 new widebodies and converted narrowbody and widebody models.
By region, Boeing expects Asia-Pacific markets to account for more than 40 percent of global demand, with half of that total in China. North America and Europe each will account for about 20 percent of global demand. It projects that low-cost carriers will operate more than 40 percent of the single-aisle fleet in 2042, up from 10 percent 20 years ago.