The global civil aviation industry will need a combined 1.3 million new professionals by 2032 to support the growing commercial and business aviation markets, according to flight training giant CAE. In its recently released 2023 Aviation Talent Forecast, CAE projects that the business aviation industry alone will need 106,000 to join the segment—32,000 pilots and 74,000 maintenance technicians. The airlines will need to recruit 252,000 pilots, 328,000 maintenance technicians, and 599,000 cabin crew, according to the prognostication.
“With a need for 1.3 million people by 2032, CAE’s Aviation Talent Forecast is a call to action for the industry to promote careers in aviation to the next generation, reach out to underrepresented communities, and develop innovative support programs to expand the pool of talent needed for the continued growth and safety of our industry,” said CAE civil aviation group president Nick Leontidis. “As commercial aviation nears full recovery and business aviation exceeds pre-pandemic levels, CAE’s Aviation Talent Forecast shows that the demand will continue to grow, and the industry will have to come together and find creative ways to ensure a steady pipeline of highly trained personnel for the next 10 years and beyond.”
The forecast projects 18 percent growth in the business aviation fleet over the next decade, from 22,000 to 26,000 aircraft in 2032. Over the same period, the airline fleet will expand from 31,000 to 43,000 aircraft, representing 39 percent growth, CAE further forecasts.
Compounding this growth, from a workforce standpoint, is the aging population. Thirty percent of the U.S. workforce will be of retirement age by 2030, and 38 percent of pilots are currently over age 50. More than half of aircraft maintenance technicians are at least 40, and cabin crews are experiencing a higher rate of turnover.
“With massive retirement numbers projected over the next 10 years, the percentage of aviation personnel over the age of 50 will keep increasing in comparison to the total civil aviation industry pool,” the forecast noted. “The retirement of experienced pilots will need to be countered with an even larger wave of new hires.”
Further, demand is already exceeding supply, according to the forecast, pointing to a Regional Airline Association report that 414 regional jets (or 22 percent of their member-operated aircraft) have been parked due to a lack of crew.
As far as where, Asia-Pacific will require 427,000 new professionals through 2032, leading all regions during the forecast period. North America is next with a requisite 335,000 professionals, followed by Europe at 259,000.
However, those numbers are largely driven by the airline trajectory. Looking at business aviation alone, North America has the largest requirement, for 66,000 new professionals, including 48,000 maintenance technicians. Europe follows with a need for 18,000 professionals—10,000 maintenance technicians and 8,000 pilots.