While the number of newly issued FAA pilot certificates has jumped significantly, analyst Jefferies estimates that a shortage of about 5,000 pilots still exists in the U.S. and is on pace to reach a 12,000 deficit by 2025. Jefferies reported that total pilot certificate issuances last month increased by 34 percent year-over-year and by 77 percent from August 2019.
Of the 15,900 certificates issued last month, 1,266 were for airline transport pilots (ATP), a more than 21 percent year-over-year rise. At the same time, commercial certificates issued were up by 25 percent, private pilot issuances by 43 percent, and students by 35 percent.
However, taking into account the record ATP issuance, Jefferies estimated that the pipeline total is still shy by 4 percent given the early Covid retirements. This shortfall is expected to grow to 8 percent in 2025 and 9 percent—or 14,000 pilots—by 2030 as the pent-up certifications normalize and retirements reach 3 percent annually.
Jefferies points out that 16 percent of today’s pilots are between 60 to 64 years old and another 17 percent are between 55 and 59.