Aircraft using routes to and from Asia across the Barents Sea could find themselves at risk from Russian test firings of nuclear-powered missiles. Security group Dyami this week issued a warning about the potential for midair collisions with the hypersonic missiles, or with debris resulting from a malfunctioning test.
According to Dyami CEO Eric Schouten, his analysts are concerned that the Russian government may not be transparent in declaring full details of the missile tests, as required by international protocols for notams. Current notices covering the ULAM and ULMM flight information regions (FIR) airspace over the Barents Sea show a couple of temporary routes and airspace closures. However, another notam covering the ULLL FIR shows some airspace closed off through October 6—but without using the required WM code to indicate a missile test area.
The apparent danger area in the ULLL FIR is situated west of Yuzhny Island and stops just short of the airway T570 BALUD-ANODI, running south/north. On its south side, the area is bordered by the airway T553 GIMON-PIBOL that runs southeast/northwest.
“The missiles are in an early testing phase, and thus are very unpredictable,” said Dyami in an intelligence brief issued on October 2. “There is a real chance of the tests going out of control, leading the missiles to potentially fly uncontrolled for thousands of miles.”
The missiles being tested are 12 meters (almost 40 feet) in length and 1.5 meters (almost 5 feet) in circumference. Although they are not carrying nuclear warheads, if a test goes wrong the missiles could spread radioactive emissions from the nuclear material used as a power source.
Back in 1988, during the latter part of the Soviet era, Russia signed a treaty with the U.S. agreeing to announce intercontinental missile tests in advance to reduce tensions and the potential for accidents. However, Russia is no longer honoring this treaty and has been in an increasingly tense standoff with NATO states since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In recent days, the airspace that appears to have been designated for missile testing has been used by international carriers including Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Air India.